《大行報告》中金料中國宏橋及東方海外「染藍」 將有被動資金各流入4,290萬及6,440萬美元
就恆指公司上週五(20日)宣佈首季季檢結果,恆生指數成份股將加入東方海外(00316.HK)、中升(00881.HK)、中芯(00981.HK)及中國宏橋(01378.HK),剔除瑞聲科技(02018.HK),成份股數目將由66只增加至69只,變動將於6月13起生效。中金髮表報告表示,基於當前彭博的彙總,追蹤恆生指數的ETF資金規模約爲238.5億美元,追蹤國企指數和恆生科技指數的ETF資金規模分別約爲57.9億美元和85.2億美元。
結合上述成分股權重變化,該行測算了其潛在被動資金流向。進一步結合個股過去3個月日均成交額,便可以測算被動資金變化可能帶來的影響,估計被動資金流入所需時間最多的中芯國際(料流入1.43億美元)、中升控股(料流入6,200萬美元)、中國宏橋(料流入4,290萬美元)、東方海外(料流入6,440萬美元)預計需要2.3到1.3天不等。另一方面瑞聲科技將被剔除指數,可能將帶來2,624萬美元資金流出,預計需要1.2天左右。
中金錶示,恆生指數此次調整後,恆指成分股數量由66只增加至69只,進一步顯示出擴容趨勢。根據恆指公司3月發佈的諮詢結果,恆生指數成分股將在2022年中前增加至80只,最終固定在100只。不過,由於目前指數的成分股距離80只的目標依然存在較大差距,因此如果要想到達這一目標,接下來以6月30日爲考察截止日期的半年度調 整時的擴容步伐加速可能需要更加顯着。
該行指,大消費板塊和資訊科技業的市場覆蓋度有所提升。參照恆指公司的對行業分類,此次恆指調整後,非必需性及必需性消費的覆蓋度從44.9%提升至47%,增幅較爲明顯。同時資訊科技業增加1.1個百分點至86.1%,在提升行業代表性上持續優化。
中金指港股通方面,此次或無公司符合滬港通納入條件由於此次是季度指數調整,因此對於每季度調整一次的恆生綜合指數而言,只有符合快速納入機制的股票才考慮納入綜指。此次恆生綜指納入蔚來-SW(09866.HK),但由於蔚來是二次上市公司,因此無法被納入港股通範圍。
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