中原估價指數(主要銀行)CVI擺脫低位 新春前後有望重上40點
中原估價指數(主要銀行)CVI本週最新報37.78點,較上週30.83點上升6.95點。中原地產研究部高級聯席董事黃良升指,CVI明顯擺脫4周前低位,即去年12月美國宣佈加快縮減買債及預告加息後的23.12點。指數近3周累升14.66點,重返去年11月美國宣佈啓動減買債時的35點水平。反映美國減買債影響本港銀行的估價取態出現短暫波動。CVI連續11周處於40點以下,但未有跌穿20點,預示樓價走勢持續下調回軟,但沒有轉勢大跌跡象。本地疫情發展將影響未來數週CVI走勢,展望新春前後有望重上40點水平。
他表示,CVI走勢持續反覆向下。去年9月美國聯儲局預告快將縮減買債,CVI隨即跌入40點至60點好淡分界區間。去年11月美國宣佈減買債當週,CVI跌穿40點好淡分界區間下限,其後連續6周在35點上下反覆。12月中旬美國宣佈加快縮減買債及預告2022年加息,CVI進一步向下跌穿30點,連跌2周至23.12點低位。不過,近3周CVI反彈並企穩30點以上。同期CCL結束9周於186點到188點間徘徊,回軟至近5周於184點到186點爭持。
另外,2020年8月至12月,CVI曾跌穿40點。當時CVI由43.49點單週急跌,跌至34.90點。其後CVI連續22周於40點上下反覆,期間最高48.57點,最低32.68點。同期樓價由高位回軟後反覆徘徊,當時CCL於176點到178點窄幅爭持,22周計僅累跌0.69%,未有掉頭向下。
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