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中信証券料騰訊(00700.HK)受反壟斷政策影響有限 即使微信分享封禁放開負面影響有限
阿思達克 11-12 10:42
中信証券發表報告表示,就內地市監局近日發布《關於平台經濟領域的反壟斷指南》,料對騰訊(00700.HK)整體影響有限,稱指南對於騰訊主要聚焦於是否存在拒絕交易的現象,料對公司旗下微信業務或有影響,但對遊戲、廣告及金融業務料影響有限。

該行指,據《反壟斷指南》條例中對於拒絕交易的認定標準(在平台規則、算法、技術、流量分配等方面設置障礙,使交易相對人難以開展交易),微信此前分別封禁淘寶和抖音等競爭平台分享鏈接的行為,或可能被監管部門認定為拒絕交易。其他業務中,遊戲作為產品單體而非平台,並不適用於《反壟斷指南》。

中信証券表示,騰訊廣告業務於今年第二季營收達185.5億人民幣,據艾瑞諮詢數據,內地今年第二季國內網絡廣告市場規模可達1,678.9億人民幣,騰訊廣告業務未達到市場支配地位,互聯網廣告領域依然保持市場化價體系;金融與企業服務業務中,目前騰訊在支付、信貸和雲業務也均未實現壟斷或支配市場。

該行認為,即使微信分享封禁放開後,對微信影響依然有限。從字節跳動公司的策略來看,當前抖音月活躍用戶數量已逾7億,其用戶體量及影響力已經能與微信平台抗衡,較難進一步通過微信獲取新流量;同時字節跳動更希望將社交關係鏈沉澱到抖音平台,而不昃進一步通過微信外鏈擴張。如果微信開放抖音分享封禁,抖音短視頻或將提升微信平台內容豐富度,微信作為流量入口料將分流淘寶平台流量,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)接入微信小程序體系,或將帶動騰訊交易生態發展。因此,微信分享封禁放開後,料負面影響有限。

該行指,維持對騰訊「買入」評級及目標價650元,指公司基本面保持良好。

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