玖龙纸业(02689.HK)：钟摆向上，不妨乐观性，维持“买入”评级
机构：国信证券
评级：买入
盈利改善拐点出现
2020FY 实现销量 1530 万吨（+8.5%），营收 519.60 亿元（-5.2%），净利润 41.69 亿元（+8.0%）。收入下降主要原因是吨纸均价下跌，净利润同比增长原因主要是原材料废纸跌幅大于成品纸。毛利率和净利率也受益于废纸价格大幅下跌，为 17.6%（+2.2%）和 8.1%（+1.0%）。在疫情影响下，公司 2020H2 盈利水平较 2020H1 仍然有所改善。公司盈利拐点或已出现，未来盈利能力有望随产业链景气改善不断上行。 ? 布局产业链上下游，拓展客户群体公司拓展国内外替代原材料供应渠道，预计 2022 年共有超 200 万吨木浆和废纸浆产能，其原材料的质、量以及由此带来的成本优势有望进一步加强。公司期内还收购了下游包装厂业务，并计划未来在成都、重庆增加包装产能，这一举措有望与造纸业务产生协同效应，提升集团整体利润率水平。此外，公司推出“江龙牌”打入低端市场，丰富产品组合，进一步提升产品市占率。
吨纸盈利与估值仍处中低位，向上空间充足
2020FY 吨纸净利润 272 元，在去除财务费用影响后位于历史中低位置，随着行业进一步出清，龙头议价权提升，吨纸净利润有望持续上行。另一方面，无论是 PE 还是 PB，公司当前相对估值水平仅与2012-2016 年行业产能严重过剩期间位于相同水平。其估值并未合理反映行业近年来产能去化、公司自身规模增长、议价权提升、资本开支负担下降等基本面层面的良性改善。
投资建议：看好龙头景气周期高弹性，维持“买入”评级
预 计 2021-2023 净 利 润 75.76/99.04/113.81 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 速81.7/30.7/14.9%。2020 年 9 月 24 日收盘价 10.28 港元对应 2021-2023年 PB=0.93/0.81/0.71x。看好行业景气上行期“量价齐升”带来的高业绩弹性，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示
行业供给侧收缩幅度不及预期；原材料价格剧烈波动。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
