同程艺龙(00780.HK)：复苏趋势明朗化，上调至“买入“评级，目标价18港元
机构：浦发银行
评级：买入
目标价：18.00港元
渐进式复苏与我们此前预期一致：我们曾在 5 月 6 日首次覆盖报告《同程艺龙：静待“寒冬”消退》中，给出不同于市场的观点——“持有”评级，主要由于“行业回暖速度或慢于预期，考虑到疫情不确定性以及‘后疫情’影响”。而此后北京、新疆等地先后暴发二次疫情，进一步推迟了全国旅游业相关政策的放开， 并抑制了居民的出行意愿因此，公司近几个月的股价表现也落后于 MSCI 中国可选消费指数20 日均价与我们此前14.0 港元目标价基本一致。
疫情得到控制，出行需求不断释放，上调至“买入”评级：随着国内疫情趋于稳定，经济逐步回暖，旅游业复苏趋势明朗。我们认为公司已经度过至暗时刻，增长的不确定性基本消除，所以上调至“买入”评级。政策端，全国景区承载量已由 30%上调至 50%，并开放景区室内场所，出行基本恢复常态；十一黄金周火车票预订恢复往年火爆，出行意愿高涨；经济稳步复苏，助力居民旅游消费能力提升。公司层面，得益于有效成本管控，二季度利润远超市场预期。同时，公司预计第三季度收入同比下降 5~10%，正逐步恢复到疫情前水平。
加大线下获客，丰富流量入口：我们仍然看好公司独有的微信流量红利，以及在低线城市的优势。低线城市旅游业在疫情中率先回暖，二季度公司低线酒店间夜量同比上升 15%。此外， 同程艺龙也与酒店、旅游景区合作，加码线下流量获取，包括增设线下扫码，汽车售票机等。线下获客使得公司获客渠道更加多元化，且成本较低。目前，线下获客用户贡献约8%的MPU，预计下半年有望超过10%。
上调至 “买入” 评级，提升目标价至 18.0港元： 由于外部环境改善，我们将 FY20-22 年调整后净利润分别上调 7.3%、9.2%和 8.0%，目标价提升至18.0 港元，对应32x和18x的2020E 和2021E 年市盈率。
投资风险：宏观经济放缓；竞争激烈。
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