药明生物(02269.HK)：疫情短期负面影响已过，业绩超预期，维持“增持”评级
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
本报告导读：
公司发布 2020 年中报正面盈利预告，疫情影响有限，业绩超预期。积极开展疫苗CDMO等新兴业务，盈利能力有望进一步提升，维持公司增持评级。
摘要：
维持“增持”评级。公司发布 2020年中报正面盈利预告，预期2020年 H1 归母净利润同比增长 58%以上。疫情负面影响有限，业绩增长超预期。维持2020-2022年EPS预测为 1.04/1.51/2.05元。因业绩超预期，参考行业可比公司估值，上调 2020年目标 PE 至 159.5X，对应目标价为184.1港币（+33.6港币） 。维持增持评级。
疫情短期影响已过，竞争优势借机有望扩大。受疫情影响，2020Q1有一个月的运营损失， 并带来商业化生产CMO收入推迟，预计有 1亿美元收入从 2020 年推迟到 2021 年。目前疫情影响逐步消除，非新冠项目维持稳健增长趋势，新生产基地产能爬坡带来产能利用率提升，叠加投资等一次性收益，驱动公司业绩超预期。新冠相关项目爆发，利于公司扩大竞争优势。于6月18日公司投资者开放日，管理层表示已签署 11 个新冠中和抗体项目，竞标成功率约 70%，体现公司竞争力；另外有27个新冠项目在洽谈，包括4 个新冠疫苗项目，与同行对比，处于领先地位。预计 2020 年新冠项目收入超 8000 万美元，2021年预估达1.5亿美元。
公司目前正处于迭代蜕变阶段，未来有望成为全球生物药赋能平台。1）积极扩大产能，实现全球供应链，预计到2022年，公司产能将超28万升，地域跨越北美、欧洲、中国等国家地区；2）疫苗和新型药物范式业务备受期待，公司为全球第一家疫苗商业化 CMO 供应商，且有多个新冠疫苗项目在洽谈；3）投资生物药和上下游公司，深化全产业链布局，助力降低抗体研发生产成本。药明生物在品牌、产品类别、产品质量、工艺、生产成本、供应链等竞争要素方面积累的优势有望逐渐加大，形成以最低的成本生产出质量最好的产品的核心竞争力。
催化剂：商业化生产订单落地，全球产业链布局推进。
风险提示：关键客户流失的风险；政策变化的风险；新冠疫情影响超预期；外汇波动的风险。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
