传媒行业周报系列:行业配置性价比高,围绕5G与低估值两主线,给予“推荐”评级
机构:华西证券
评级:推荐
市场行情回顾
本周(2019.12.30-2020.1.3)上证指数上涨2.62%,沪深300指数上涨3.06%,创业板指上涨3.87%。SW传媒指数上涨6.73%,相比创业板指上涨2.86pct,在申万一级28个行业涨跌幅排名中位列第二。
传媒行业数据
截至2020年1月5日(周日)中午,本周票房前三甲分别为《宠爱》《叶问4》和《误杀》,分别实现4.00、2.10、1.49亿元票房;影视剧集排名前三为《庆余年》《精英律师》和《鹤唳华亭》;综艺排名前三分别为《奇葩说第六季》《我们的歌》和《吐槽大会第四季》;游戏热玩榜前三为《王者荣耀》《和平精英》和《三国志·战略版》。
核心观点
当前传媒行业正处于新一轮行情起步阶段,我们认为有三大因素支撑本轮行情:(1)从2015-2019年,行业经历漫长的估值消耗,行业龙头普遍PE估值仅20x,从行业配置角度来看,传媒板块的性价比较高;(2)从2016-2019年,监管政策经历持续调整,目前已进入平稳期,监管环境相对较好;(3)随着中国5G商用推进,新产业开始孕育,云游戏、超高清、MCN等一系列新产业形态,将为行业带来价值增量。
投资建议
我们认为,传媒板块核心配置思路应按照5G和低估值两条线进行配置:(1)5G产业:云游戏、超高清、广电5G是主线。首先,云游戏将为行业带来较大的增量空间,游戏龙头的估值同样具有持续提升的空间;其次,随着政策的推进和产品的升级换代,预计超高清产业将进入爆发增长期;同时,近期广电改革政策陆续落地,行业将迎来主题催化,短期看一网整合和广电5G建设,长期看整个行业基本面的改善;(2)低估值:从横向和纵向两个维度看,传媒板块整体估值依然偏低,部分非核心主线公司业绩在行业低迷期依然保持正增长,且目前PE仅10-15x,从估值和业绩匹配角度来看,性价比较高。
风险提示
监管政策不确定性风险;宏观经济下行风险。

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