《大行》高盛下調阿里(09988.HK)未來兩年盈測 維持「買入」評級
高盛發表研究報告指,阿里-W(09988.HK)(BABA.HK)截至今年6月底止首財季雲業務及資本開支表現均勝預期,重申看好AI驅動的增長,維持「買入」評級。
該行指,阿里經營能見度提升,管理層透露外賣及即時零售的單位經濟效益預期可在未來數月大幅改善,換言之截至9月底止次財季相信會是相關業務虧損的高峯。集團也對2026財年餘下季度維持客戶管理收入增長有信心,相信可緩解市場對即時零售業務大幅投資的擔憂。
高盛將次財季阿里即時零售虧損預測從原先200億元人民幣上調至310億元人民幣,對比首財季虧損爲110億元人民幣,預料隨着集團補貼正常化及騎手效率提升,第三財季每單虧損將減半。該行預期阿里外賣及即時零售市場份額最終將穩定於40%,而同業美團-W(03690.HK)及京東-SW(09618.HK)(JD.US)將佔據剩下的50%及10%份額。
高盛將阿里2026至2027財年歸屬於普通股股東經調整淨利潤預測下調9%及4%,集團EBITA預測下調11%及1%,2028財年盈利及EBITA預測則上調2%,看好持續投資於電商及雲業務可推動增長,港股及美股目標價上調至158港元及163美元。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.