瑞銀:港銀股股價已反映HIBOR反彈對淨利息收入正面影響 重申對香港CRE謹慎看法
瑞銀投資銀行大中華區金融行業分析師李荷清撰文指,在金管局介入後,本港銀行體系總結餘已從5月的1,740億元高點下降至540億元,標誌著SOFR-HIBOR利差的拐點,將均值回升。本周一(18日),一個月HIBOR從上周五(15日)的1.45%反彈至2.01%。同時,美元兌港元匯率從7.85跌至7.83。HIBOR的走勢符合該行預期,隨著SOFR-HIBOR利差收窄,該行預計HIBOR將在三季度末處於2%至2.5%區間。
該行認為,HIBOR反彈對淨利息收入的正面影響基本反映在港銀股股價。雖然HIBOR反彈支援銀行的淨息差和淨利息收入,但該行認為市場預期已反映了今年餘下時間HIBOR處於2%至2.5%。對於香港本地銀行來說,該行預計第三季度淨利息收入的擠壓壓力比次季度更大,因為次季度的負面影響僅為一個月左右,貸款需求可能因利率上升而再次疲軟。繼5至6月貸款餘額增長2%後,增長勢頭能否持續還有待觀察。對於2025年,該行預計中銀香港(02388.HK)、恆生銀行(00011.HK)和東亞銀行(00023.HK)的淨利息收入將分別下降7%、9%及11%。
瑞銀重申該行對香港商業房地產(CRE)的謹慎看法。該行對港銀資產質量仍然持謹慎看法,因為HIBOR反彈可能加劇銀行來自香港商業地產敞口的不良貸款風險,進一步加大撥備壓力。
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