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軍工股再掀漲停潮,航空航天ETF、通信設備ETF、航空航天ETF天弘漲超2%
格隆匯 06-26 10:48

A股市場軍工股再掀漲停潮,萬里馬(4日3板)、中光防雷、國瑞科技(2連板)20CM漲停,中科海訊漲超14%,北方長龍漲近14%,科翔股份漲超11%,華強科技漲超10%,吉大正元(4連板)、北方導航(2連板)、建設工業(2連板)、中光學(2連板)、長城軍工(2連板)、格爾軟件、海洋王、中京電子10CM漲停,。

ETF方面,華夏航空航天ETF、富國通信設備ETF、航空航天ETF天弘漲超2%;萬家航天航空ETF、富國軍工龍頭ETF、軍工ETF易方達、嘉實高端裝備ETF、廣發軍工ETF龍頭。

航空航天ETF、航空航天ETF天弘跟蹤國證航天指數,國防軍工權重佔比高達96.2%,是全市場軍工含量最高的指數,十大重倉股涵蓋了中航成飛、中航沈飛、中航西飛、航發動力等戰鬥機核心供應商,一鍵打包殲擊機龍頭。

軍工主題高度活躍,消息面上,9月3日將舉行閱兵,參閱的所有裝備均爲國產現役主戰裝備,在展示新一代傳統武器裝備的基礎上,也安排部分無人智能、水下作戰、網電攻防、高超聲速等新型作戰力量參閱。

國際局勢新常態下,軍工資產有望價值重估。當前全球處於百年未有之大變局,軍備競賽拉開序幕:美國特朗普政府升級關稅貿易摩擦,同時加大軍費投入,重點打造六代機等新型航空裝備、“金穹”天基防禦系統、軍事人工智能等;今年3月,歐盟公佈“重新武裝歐洲”計劃,追加8000億歐元國防開支;亞太地區,韓國日本等國家擴大軍費,接連突破歷史高位。地緣方面,俄烏、印巴、中東等地區衝突不斷,局勢緊張加劇。中國武器裝備在印巴空戰中大放異彩,實戰勝果有望推動中械裝備在軍貿市場份額提升,中國軍工迎來Deepseek時刻。

從機構持倉看,基金軍工持倉市值佔比2.47%,超配比例0.16%,機構繼續加大軍工配置。業績表現看,2025年Q1,軍工板塊整體實現築底,合同負債(訂單)和部分賽道公司業績已呈現拐點,反映出行業景氣反轉已至。

國金證券指出,十四五收官務期必成,今年以來軍工企業訂單任務非常飽滿,都在加速生產交付,下半年行業高景氣持續。當前軍工集團已經開展十五五規劃編制工作,隨着後續十五五規劃出臺,軍工行業將迎來新一輪發展期。2025年9月3日是中國抗日戰爭暨世界反法西斯戰爭勝利80週年紀念日,屆時相關活動有望引發廣泛關注,催化軍工行情。

申萬宏源證券表示,無論從中長期基本面上行還是短期事件催化,軍工行業正迎來基本面改善和市場關注度提升,建議加大軍工關注度。

東北證券認爲,國防軍工板塊具備長期成長確定性。2023年以來,軍工行業基本面受到人事調整等因素影響,訂單延後,行業景氣度下滑。而在當下時點,“十四五”計劃進入最後一年,軍工行業擾動因素已基本消除,下遊需求呈恢復性增長,同時2027年建設目標迫在眉睫,中長期目標也對行業發展提供明確指引:2035年基本實現國防和軍隊現代化,2050年把人民軍隊全面建成世界一流軍隊。伴隨需求恢復,產能結構逐步優化,國防軍工板塊有望得到大幅改善,安全邊際高,具備長期成長確定性。

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