郭思治:大市已進入整固待變之格局
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市已接近12月份之尾聲,而直到執筆一刻止計,本月大市之形態仍暫屬先低而後高,恆指暫仍由3日之低位19,386點升至10日之高位21,070點,即在短短6個交易日內,月內之波幅已有達1,684點,論波幅計已不算小,或已可滿足月內之所需,但一個月之高低位是很少同時出現於6個交易日之內,故單從理論上看,在本月底之前,月內可能會有更大之波幅點出現,但考慮到12月剩下之交易日已不多,因聖誕及新年大假已近,故不少基金經理及投資者已外遊,故大市之交投會漸趨疏落,即期間沽壓並不會太明顯,只要維穩買盤略作扶持,大市已可持續處整固之中,即恆指可續緊扣着20天線而不下,加上年結已近,維穩之部署或會進一步明顯,即是說,本月大市之波幅可能不出現太大變化。
移動線方面之走勢仍持續反覆,目前各組平均移動線之排列由上而下爲50天線(約在20,074點左近),10天線(約在20,011點左近),20天線(約在19,764點左近),100天線(約在19,183點左近)及250天線(約在17,955點左近),從目前大市之走勢看,恆指仍持續反覆於50天線及10天線之下,只要在沽壓並不太明顯之下,恆指暫未有再進一步正式跌穿20天線,即大市雖仍續處反覆偏軟之中,但走勢尚不算太差,但需說明,目前大市雖已進入整固之中,跌勢似稍見喘定,惟技術上並不算真正的回穩,單從技術上看,必需待恆指成功重越10天及50天線之後,纔算真正的回穩。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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