郭思治:大市反覆並似欲回試10天線
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市經過連升兩日後,恆指雖已升至近24,000點,但由於交投一直稍偏疏,故在動力不繼之下,昨日(22日)市勢又再出現反覆,恆指昨早市先低開79點至23,748點,其後曾略爲後抽至23,778點,惟買盤卻步,加上伺高回吐之沽壓亦漸增,故整個大市卒漸轉反覆,而恆指亦一度回落至23,470點方漸見喘定,值得留意的是,由於目前10天線已升至23,435點左近,故大市如再稍受壓便會觸及10天線,此防線一旦有失,即表示大市自4月9日低位19,260點開始之反彈,或已止步於5月21日之高位23,917點,恆指最後報收23,544點,較上日跌283點,全日總成交金額爲1,982億元。
談到平均移動線,在大市持續反彈下,目前各組平均移動線之排列由上而下爲10天線(約在23,435點左近),20天線(約在22,852點左近),50天線(約在23,805點左近),100天線(約在21,906點左近)及250天線(約在20,050點左近),單從資料上看,目前各組移動線之排列已屬標準之升市模式,技術上該有利短期後市之發展,惟需留意,大市如欲作進一步之試頂,成交金額必需再見暢旺,因大市之動力如不相配,升勢當會漸受規限,不要忘記,大市於六週內累積之升幅已達4,657點,故任何再冒高追入之投機性短炒行動,最好是做足風險管理,而10天線暫該爲短期後市一個較重要之支持據點,因10天線一旦有失,雖並不代表大市會明顯回落,但該表示大市已暫失去欲試頂之趨勢。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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