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亞鉀國際(000893.SZ):今年鉀肥市場整體呈現供需緊張狀態
格隆匯 07-11 07:17

格隆匯7月11日丨亞鉀國際(000893.SZ)披露投資者關係活動記錄表顯示,今年鉀肥市場整體呈現供需緊張狀態,支持鉀肥市場行情積極預期。從需求端來看,Argus(阿格斯)預計,2023年全球鉀肥需求量為6820萬噸,2024年全球鉀肥需求量將提升至7310萬噸。今年受巴西、俄羅斯、美國等全球多區域極端天氣的影響,全球糧食價格出現上升。根據聯合國糧農組織發佈了5月食品價格指數,5月平均為118.7點,環比上升7.1點(6.3%)。糧價提升有助於刺激下游農民種植積極性,進而帶動農產品鉀肥需求提升。

從供應端來看,地緣政治的影響依然存在,導致全球鉀肥供給仍存在較大不確定性。白俄羅斯方面,根據2024年USGS報吿,白俄羅斯2023年產量和出口量均低於2022年,受制裁影響白俄羅斯雖然轉而通過鐵路向中國及俄羅斯港口出口鉀肥,但其出口量仍受到一定限制。俄羅斯方面,俄烏衝突的影響雖然相較2022年有所減弱,但持續存在。同時,包括加鉀、俄鉀、白俄鉀在內的主要鉀肥大廠,近年物流運輸成本、供應鏈採購成本等多項成本大幅增加,整體銷售成本顯著提升,核心鉀肥企業成本中樞上移有望支撐鉀肥市場價格中長期上升。

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