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大行评级丨招商证券国际:料阿里巴巴上季收入增速放缓至6.2%,淘天集团增速不及预期
招商证券国际料阿里巴巴12月季度收入增速放缓至6.2%,对比9月季度为8.5%,招商证券国际解释,料淘天集团增速不及预期,影响因素包括:1)宏观逆风;2)广告和佣金货币化率较低的淘宝GMV占比提升,使得整体货币化率承压;3)公司将更多战略资源向第三方3P业务倾斜,使得1P业务增速放缓。招商估,淘天集团上季收入仅同比增长1.1%,其中客户管理(CMR)收入增长0.7%,贡献约74%的淘天集团收入。 国际数字商业(AIDC)近季增长迅猛,招商估,12月季度分部收入录得同比增长40%,得益于Ali Express和Trendyol等推动,同时,AIDC快速增长带动菜鸟业务22%的同比稳健增长。 不过,招商将阿里上季EBITA预测由590亿下调到520亿元,同比持平,EBITA利润率预计收窄1.2个百分点,主要受到国际商业、数字传媒娱乐以及其他业务亏损预期增加所拖累,公司计划加大对AliExpress Choice的投入,同时Trendyol也处于扩张期。
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