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小摩:2023年市場最大風險是經濟不衰退
uSMART盈立智投 02-01 19:16

小摩策略師Mike Bell表示,目前市場面臨的最大威脅是,如果經濟衰退沒有成爲現實,將迫使美聯儲繼續保持鷹派立場,這將迫使美聯儲加息幅度超過預期以遏制通脹。如果美聯儲不能像市場預期的那樣降息,股市和債市都會下跌。

自去年3月以來,美聯儲一直在積極加息,以遏制通脹。一系列經濟數據表明,物價正在降溫,但由於緊縮的貨幣政策導致經濟放緩,市場正在爲衰退做準備。

標普500指數和納斯達克指數過去一個月分別上漲近6%和11%,因爲華爾街預計美聯儲將扭轉爲應對經濟低迷而採取的緊縮政策。但如果美國經濟仍未衰退,工資增長保持在高位,那麼美聯儲將不會像預期的那樣降息,而是不得不在今年下半年恢復加息,加息幅度將高於華爾街目前的預期。

但Bell表示,小摩基本預測2023年將出現經濟衰退,這將緩和工資壓力,那麼美聯儲將在2024年降息。“我最樂觀的猜測是,美聯儲將在2024年底前將利率降至2.5%左右”。

美聯儲爲期兩天的政策會議將於本週三結束,預計加息幅度將是近一年來最小的一次。本次預計加息25個基點,今年晚些時候將再加息25個基點,市場普遍預計這將使美聯儲利率升至4.75%-5.00%。

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