惠譽:在華車企面臨需求疲弱 價格戰風險攀升
評級機構惠譽認為,儘管「動態清零」防疫政策管控已於近期解除,但是在華車企仍面臨消費需求低迷的挑戰,且攀升的「價格戰」風險很可能在2023年擠壓車企的利潤率。在汽車消費刺激政策於2022年底到期後,新能源汽車與傳統燃油車的分化或將擴大,敦促合資主機廠加速向新能源汽車轉型。
2022年中國乘用車零售交付量微增1.6%。2022年第四季度銷量受制於10至11月防疫管控趨嚴,但在中國12月初重新開放後反彈,季度按年增速回正。惠譽認為,據此判定消費者情緒正在改善為時尚早,因為年底的回暖主要受補貼政策到期和新能源車企定價策略影響,並透支了2023年第一季度的需求。
在中央財政補貼於2022年底退出後,地方政府或將在穩定汽車消費需求方面發揮更大的作用。2023年1月29日,上海市宣布將純電動汽車的置換補貼政策延續至2023年6月底,每輛一萬元人民幣。更多地方政府或將仿效,提供短期消費補貼或消費券。
隨著新能源汽車銷售滲透率上升,新能源車細分市場表現將繼續優於整體車市。然而,價格戰風險在特斯拉一月初再度降價後上升,尤其已有個別中資品牌跟隨降價。繼2022年第四季度特斯拉首輪降價之後,中資新能源車企採取多種調價策略,以激勵購車者趕在2022年底前下單。這些由車企補貼的訂單很可能侵蝕其2023年第一季度的利潤率。2022年,新能源汽車在中國新車市場的滲透率從2021年的16%勁升至28%,全年批發交付量增速高達96%。
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