熱點熱評 | 黑五消費數據出爐,好壞怎麼看?
黑色星期五是美國最大的購物活動之一,而這次的黑色星期五尤爲關鍵,因爲市場最關注的就是衰退什麼時候會到來,所以這次黑五的數據或許能給我們一些新的信號。那麼我們就一起來看一下,美國的消費者都怎麼樣了。
作者 | 美投講美股 來源 | 美投investing
根據Adobe監測的線上購物數據,本次黑五的線上銷售爲91.2億美元,同比上升了2.3%,但扣除通脹,其實下降了大約5%。其中,電子產品的銷售強勁,本次黑五的單日銷量比十月的平均單日銷量上漲了221%。玩具和運動器材也是這次線上購物的熱門選擇,單日銷售分別上漲了285%和218%。在通脹的影響下,有更多的消費者選擇了像延後付款這樣更靈活的付款方案。延後付款的使用量和上週平均相比上漲了78%。
從這些數據可以看出,美國人的線上購買力其實是出現了小幅的下降,但下降的幅度遠沒有市場想象中那麼大。從消費者選擇的類別來看,也印證了之前一些零售財報的結論,美國人在購物這方面變得更加有耐心和有策略性。之前的零售數據顯示非必需品的銷售正在下滑,但這次的非必需品的銷售卻上漲,黑五又通常是電子產品等非必需商品折扣最大的日子。這一漲一跌說明瞭,更多的美國人選擇在促銷活動日子當中購買非必需品。
線下消費也表現堅挺。數據顯示,黑五當天,美國人的商場客流量同比上升了2.9%,雖然有所上漲,但還沒有恢復的疫情以前的水平。其中,更多的消費者選擇了露天的購物場所。這部分商店客流量同比上漲了4.7%,Sensormatic Solutions 的全球零售總經理指出,經歷了疫情的衝擊,當人們選擇進入商店的時候,消費的意願會更強。
美投君認爲,上面數據又一次讓我們看到了美國消費者的堅挺,雖然實際金額扣除通脹有所下降,但還是遠沒有到市場擔憂所謂衰退的跡象。這也繼續證明,勞動力市場的堅挺,和拜登的各種財政刺激還繼續作用在消費者上,讓他們的需求難以出現大幅度的下滑。
另外,這份調查當中還提到一個特別有意思的數據,今年消費者之所以選擇提前購物,主要是擔心未來的支付能力會下降,比如通脹和實際工資下滑,甚至是失業等等,而去年最擔心的,是節假日買不到目標的商品。這也說明瞭,經濟的問題在過去的一年裏,已經從供應鏈轉移到當前的通脹和就業上了。同時,零售商遇到的的問題,也從需求過高,貨架上沒有供應,慢慢變成供給過高,貨架上的貨賣不出去了。
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