美國通脹何時才能降溫?實際情況有些複雜
市場觀察人士、經濟學家和消費者都在思考一個問題:美國飛漲的物價何時才能回落?
來源:Wind
有跡象表明,美國通貨膨脹最糟糕的時期可能已經過去。受廣泛關注的通貨膨脹指標——消費者價格指數(CPI) 10月份同比上漲7.7%。儘管這仍遠高於美聯儲2%的目標,但確實低於華爾街的預期。
聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行的商業經濟學家和研究官員Kevin Kliesen表示:「明年可能會更低,但是說會低多少,我們不太確定。通貨膨脹很難預測。」
不過,一些專家擔心,美聯儲以歷史性的速度加息,目的是給過熱的經濟降溫,一旦塵埃落定,可能會引發經濟衰退。然而,世界大型企業聯合會首席執行官史蒂夫•奧德蘭在表示,預計任何潛在的低迷都將是溫和的。
「勞動力市場依然不錯,」Odland說。「工資增長非常迅速。與過去相比,美聯儲試圖抑制通脹的痛苦經歷可能會少得多。」
摩根士丹利首席美國股票策略師Mike Wilson預計,從現在到明年年底,"通脹將大幅下降"。
他最近表示,到明年6月,消費者價格漲幅可能會降至4%或5%,到2023年底則會回落至2%或3%。相比之下,10月份同比增長7.7%,增幅低於預期。
上週,由於投資者希望價格上漲的峯值即將到來,股市出現反彈。投資者一直在密切關注美聯儲官員的言論,以尋找何時可能暫停緊縮政策的線索。
他說:「換句話說,經濟中鬆弛的部分減少了,特別是在勞動力和能源領域,這意味着當經濟真正加速時,通脹將回升,這將阻止美聯儲再次將利率降至零。」
「我不認爲美聯儲會再次降至零利率,因爲通脹現在已經到來。所以他們必須處理好這個問題。」此前還有人認爲,廉價資金的時代已經結束,這意味着科技等行業將面臨艱難時期。
威爾遜補充說,市場正處於「繁榮-蕭條的環境」中,他說:「我們正在進入一個經濟擴張將持續三到四年的時期,而不是8到10年的時期,因爲貨幣政策不可能像過去那樣迅速發揮作用,因爲通貨膨脹現在將成爲背景。」
Wilson表示,仍有兩個領域的通脹可能"更具粘性":能源和勞動力。他說:「這兩個領域確實有點短缺,這將使通脹在結構性基礎上保持在可能高於2%的水平。」
特別是能源,從結構上看處於牛市,"甚至不是週期性的。" 數據顯示,今年迄今爲止,能源是標普500指數中唯一上漲的板塊。
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