小摩頑固多頭罕見轉空
今年以來，美股大部分時間都處於下跌狀態，但這並沒有阻止摩根大通全球研究聯席主管Marko Kolanovic一直堅持看漲觀點。然而，該策略師如今又邁出了新的一步，不再“頑固”看多美股。Kolanovic在一份報告中表示，由於衰退風險仍然很高，他正在削減增持股票的配置。
上個月該策略師也做出了類似的決定，當時他削減了增持股票和減持債券的配置，理由是央行政策和地緣政治帶來的風險越來越大。
Kolanovic表示，在聯邦基金利率接近5%的情況下，除非美聯儲“更有意義地轉向政策”，否則經濟衰退將難以避免。儘管該策略師仍在增持股票，並長期持樂觀態度，但他表示，摩根大通將利用上週的反彈作爲“適度降低我們的增持股票配置”的機會。
他寫道：“我們的樂觀情緒受到了經濟衰退風險仍在上升的影響，以及10月CPI數據被證明異常和/或未能降低央行官員將政策推向更限制性區間的渴望的風險。”
據瞭解，Kolanovic在去年的《機構投資者》(Institutional Investor)調查中被評爲股票策略師的第一名。但在2022年迄今爲止，他的看漲預測並沒有得到實現。今年夏季，他堅稱美股有望在2022年逐步復甦，標普500指數很可能在年底持平，並一再敦促投資者逢低買入。
而上週四由CPI推動的反彈讓投資者看到希望。隨着標普500指數接近200日移動平均線，最新一輪反彈可能還有更大的空間。目前，標普500指數較10月中旬的低點上漲了近11%。
另外，Kolanovic還對其模型投資組合進行了其他調整，其中包括：退出美元多頭傾向;將此前的新興市場主權債券減持調整爲中性;增加對公司債券的敞口，專注於高收益債券;扭轉此前對美國相對於歐洲高評級信貸的增持配置，因爲後者提供了更大的風險溢價;考慮到主要經濟體放鬆封控措施，以及作爲地緣政治風險和通脹的對衝，繼續增持大宗商品。
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