美股短期內或反彈16%
摩根士丹利長期看空美國股市的分析師Michael J. Wilson表示,在沒有出現盈利下降或官方衰退的情況下,美國股市出現短期反彈的時機已經成熟。Wilson在週一的一份報告中寫道,標普500指數今年已經下跌了25%,正在測試200周移動均線的“重要支撐底部”,這可能引發技術性反彈。作爲華爾街最著名的唱空者之一,Wilson表示他“不排除”標普500指數將升至約4150點,這意味着較最近的收盤水平上升16%。他表示,雖然這看起來是一個非常大的波動,但它將與今年和之前的熊市反彈相一致,他仍保持對股市長期整體負面的立場。

美國股市在2022年遭受重創,標普500指數將出現全球金融危機以來最大年度跌幅,原因是投資者擔心歷史性通脹、美聯儲的強硬立場將使經濟陷入衰退。
美國9月核心CPI升至40年高位,鞏固了美聯儲11月再次大舉加息的押注,但Wilson表示,他認爲通脹目前已見頂,"明年可能迅速回落"。不過,這位策略師也表示,他預計未來12個月“盈利將大幅減速”。
Wilson還警告稱,儘管標普500指數通常需要經歷"全面衰退"纔會跌至200周移動均線下方,但如果這次該指數未能守住該水準,漲勢可能根本無法實現。他稱,相反,該指數可能會跌至3400點或更低的水平,比上週五收盤價至少低5%。他預計,熊市最終將在3000-3200點附近觸底。

與此同時,高盛集團策略師指出,考慮到利率因素,標普500指數與歷史數據相比仍然偏高。不過,包括David J. Kostin在內的策略師在一份10月14日的報告中寫道,他們認爲,與快速產生現金流、價值、盈利增長、週期股和小盤股相關的股票具有吸引力。
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