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投資者面對複雜多變的能源價格走勢需知道什麼?
uSMART盈立智投 03-09 15:36

石油與天然氣行業在2020年疫情的影響下經歷了一陣陰霾後,在2021開始全年開始了恢復階段。

 

隨着全球疫情的常態化以及全球政治局勢的持續升溫,石油與天然氣也隨之進入了價格上升窗口並再一次成爲全球投資熱點。能源價格的上漲無疑造就了無數投機者,但同時也多面性地影響着大量行業。在這一波的能源行情中,留給投資者的問題有:石油與天然氣之後會走向何方?投資者們又該如何結合自身對市場的理解做到伺機而動?

 

目前,投資者對石油與天然氣產業可分爲上、中、下遊三個部分。每年,石油與天然氣產業可製造高達3.3萬億美元的利潤。

 

上遊產業包括了資源探索和生產類型的企業,這些企業主要負責尋找新的開發地點與原材料提取。中遊產業主要負責運輸能源給下遊企業。而下遊企業則負責提煉和製造最終產品給予零售商。這三環部分雖然相互有着緊密聯繫,但是各自部分價格受政策的影響程度各有不同。

 

因此,投資者在投資石油與天然氣相關的股票或衍生品時應時刻注意一些能影響上述三環產業的因素,例如:全球能源的供求關係,世界氣候環境與衛生安全,新能源技術的需求與投資,地緣政治等因素。

 

如今俄烏局勢導致通脹驟升,WTI原油現已突破120美元。美國原油ETF(USO.US)也已順勢上揚,本日開盤後最高漲幅爲6.64%,價格一度觸及87.84美元。

 

國際油價的日益上漲也開始影響着號稱汽車大國的美國,根據美國汽車協會6日發佈的全國平均汽油價格檢測報告,美國普通汽油的平均價格目前爲每加侖4.009美元,其中加州,伊利諾伊州,紐約州,賓夕法尼亞州的和夏威夷州的油價最高,在4.18美元至5.29美元之間,數據創下了2008年6月以來的最高汽油均價。 即使美國石油的進口來源3%是來自於俄羅斯,但是俄烏局勢一旦拖入長期化,石油的價格也會變得不可預測。

 

隨着世界開始對疫情採取常規化處理和防疫系統的不斷成熟,社會將重回常態。傳統能源爲當今的能源首選,對傳統能源的需求會隨着經濟活動的逐步頻繁而隨之上升,加上地緣政治的複雜多變導致傳統能源的供需關係失衡,傳統能源方向仍是投資熱點。可與此同時世界新能源技術的不斷提升和人類對環境保護的持續覺醒,傳統能源還能走多遠?因此,投資傳統能源可謂是風險與機遇共存。投資者應當時刻保持清醒的頭腦分析全局和做出合理的風險管控和投資配置。

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