《大行报告》高盛降新东方在线(01797.HK)评级至「沽售」 下调新东方-S(09901.HK)目标价至110元
高盛发表的研究报告指,对内地课後补习行业看法维持正面,不过该行将新东方在线(01797.HK)收入预测下调,以反映监管环境等对课後补习行业的影响,其中该行将线上大班补习收入预测下调,并将「东方优播」收入预测下调,主要因为公司将焦点放在经营效率上,暂时计划2022财年不进入新的城市。
另一方面受补习费管理要求改变,在经营现金式净现金方面需调整,该行将公司2021-25财年收入预测降5-18%,估计到2024财年将扭亏,而2022-23财年亏损则收窄。该行将公司目标价由18元降至10.5元,评级由「中性」降至「沽售」,以反映公司估值高於同业。该行予新东方(09901.HK)「买入」评级,目标价由112元降至110元。
该行指出,现时仍在等待监管方面的决定,但料2020-25年行业的年复合增长率将降至9%,短期新学校审批严格将影响供应,长远而言课後补习入场门槛有机会显着提升,拖累线下规模及线上收生增长减慢。另外长远来看补习需求或受影响,主要因为在校课後服务增加及收生改革持续。此外该行估计线上课後补习减慢情况将较线下严重,主要因为相关业务依赖投资,收生、留客方面亦有更大压力。
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