中原经纪人指数升至70.31点 料楼价升势漫长
中原地产研究部高级联席董事黄良升指出,中原经纪人指数(CSI)最新报70.31点,按周升0.73点。CSI连续七周於70点上下争持,相信会持续企稳70点水平一段时间,未有一口气上冲80点。显示前线经纪人长期保持正面乐观态度,但没有过度亢奋,预示楼价继续反覆缓慢向上。在用家主导下,旺市持续,楼价升势漫长而稳定,支持二手成交量维持高企,更有利楼市发展。
CSI是中原地产前线经纪的意见调查,於每周一进行,周三公布,收集经纪们对当周市况的预期。100点完全睇好,0点完全睇淡,50点是睇好或睇淡的分界。一般而言,CSI在45到55点间反覆徘徊,表示楼价趋向横行。CSI在55点以上反覆徘徊,表示楼价趋向上升。CSI在45点以下反覆徘徊,表示楼价趋向下跌。今日(2021年4月28日)公布的指数,是反映2021年4月26日的调查结果。本周(2021年4月26日至2021年5月2日)的市况预期,将会由4周後(5月下旬)公布的CCL验证。
CCL主要反映三周前的市况。即本周CSI对楼市的预期,将由本周起计第四周或以後公布的CCL验证是否兑现。CSI是楼市意见调查,CCL乃楼市成交统计;意见必须由事实来检验。CSI与CCL相关性高,从CSI可以推论CCL走势。
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