《大行报告》大摩料内地今年利率及政策趋势 可支持内银股今年股价表现
摩根士丹利发表研究报告,相信内地经济复苏势头及控制金融风险的需求,将导致利率出现潜在的意外上升,有望支持银行的净息差势头。该行提到,随着中国名义GDP增长由去年的3%提速至今年的料逾11%,预期相关的信贷需求增加将导致利率上升。另外,去年家庭金融资产增速远高於预期的15.6%,强劲的消费支付量增长意味着商业活动表现高於官方数据,可能为利率带来上行压力。
最後,大量的短期流动性可能会导致资产价格及金融风险快速上升,这需要以适当的市场利率水平作信号来进行更仔细与及时的管理,或会强化利率上升预期。这现象与新的银行融资法规相结合,可以帮助遏制银行的融资成本,应能支持稳定或改善银行的净息差。
该行料内地今年利率及政策趋势,将可支持内银股今年股价表现。具领导地位的中型银行有更大的发展空间,部分国有银行的估值或会有反弹。预期强劲的家庭金融资产增长,将支持资产管理业务不断扩张的零售银行,包括平安银行、兴业银行及招商银行(03968.HK);而利率上升及政策转变将支持部分国有银行的估值重估。
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