新高教集团(02001.HK)：内生维持高增速，培训业务启航，维持“审慎增持”评级，目标价6.50 港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：审慎增持
目标价： 6.50 港元
投资要点
维持“审慎增持”，维持目标价6.5港元：公司的收购布局早，截至20/21学年学生人数已超12.5万人，学费低提升空间大，职教政策扶持学额增速快，公司期内对内进一步收购河南及广西学校少数股权，对外收购培训机构“云专修”，预计未来三年仍将保持约25%的行业领先的内生增速。不考虑公司未来每年自建或并购1-2所的学校，我们预计2021-2023年收入为15.1/17.35/19.74亿元，归母净利达5.65/6.6/8.3亿元。维持“审慎增持”评级，维持目标价6.5港元，对应2021/2022年PE为16/14倍。
公司调整至8/31财年，调整后FY20收入+77.8%。公司调整财年结算日至8月31日。得益于2019下半年收购湖北学校，以及公司集团化运营效率凸显、学生人数及学费标准持续上升，公司截至2020年8月31日止12个月的收入达12.9亿元，同比+77.8%；毛利率同比+4.7pct至47.7%；净利润达4.8亿元，同比+124.3%，表现亮眼。若不考虑疫情影响的退费，公司主营收入达13.3亿元，同比+82.9%;其中学费同比增87.4%至12亿元。
在校学生人数稳步增长，生均学费水平提升空间大；考培业务启航。2020/21学年公司旗下在校学生人数达12.57万人，同比+10.7%。2020/21学年公司旗下学校平均学费达1.15万元/年，同比+4.4%，但较同业偏低，未来预计将稳步提升。此外，公司期内辅业多点开花，考培收入+68.3%至三千万。公司新收购的“云专修”将于FY21放量。届时，公司培训规模有望进一步扩大，实现协同发展。
独立学院转设稳步推进，平稳过渡分类登记影响：2018-2020年公司有效税率为8.1%、11.4%、11.9%，稳步提升以应对分类登记后税率影响。公司FY20（调整）销售/行政/融资费用率分别-0.1pct/-1.5pct/-3.2pct,净利率达到37.3%，在集团化办学效率提升情况下，费用率端不断改善。由于公司重视教学质量，预计毛利率将维持，但甘肃及湖北独立学院转设预计于21H1完成，届时独立学院利润率仍有提升空间。
风险提示：1）、举办者权益变更不及预期；2）、聘用及留任的合格教师数不及预期；3）、招收数量少于预期；4）、中国教育政策变动；5）、VIE架构政策风险。
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