植耀輝: 港股26,000點不宜失 港交所(00388.HK)前景續看好
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，英國疫情大爆發，一度令金融市場出現劇震，不過對歐美股市影響暫時較想像中輕微，看來大家也認為，疫情爆發至今已近一年，擴散已「沒甚麼大不了」，最關鍵的還是疫苗到底是否能成為最終「救命草」。所以來年大市其中一個最大變數，應是疫情是否能真正受控以及疫苗所發揮之作用。
回說港股，在長假期前表現亦相當麻麻，在A股下跌拖累下，恆指一度失守26,000點，雖然最終仍能收於26,100點附近，但整體走勢明顯轉弱。加上外圍以至A股表現亦有所轉差，即使入市亦不妨待假期後再作部署。
或者基於市況依舊充滿不確定性，在此情況下，資金繼續炒作半新股。很多時新股短期炒作實在難以用基本面分析，但無可否認升幅十分驚人，例如VESYNC(02148.HK)及泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)現時已分別較招股價累升1.16倍及1.31倍，所以即使較後時間出現顯著回調亦正常，何況現時估值實在高得有點不合理矣，建議如從高位回調約10%至15%，可考慮先行沽出獲利，並買份好好的聖誕禮物，給家人或自己開心一下。
另外，如無意外美國總統特朗普將於明年1月20日正式卸任。但在此之前，似乎針對中方措施仍會繼續出台，最新便簽署法案，除非中國公司接受美國監管機構審查會計審計，否則中概股將需要退市。筆者曾在此專欄闡述有關影響，故不再累贅。但此舉對美國上市之中概股衝擊不少，始終兩地審計標準不同，未來或會出現一波「退市潮」。
但港交所(00388.HK)卻有很大機會成為今次事件大贏家。過去中概股選擇到美國上市，主要是當地較偏愛科技創新企業，從而取得更高估值，而且美國股市一向較開放靈活，因此成為企業上市首選。然而，港交所近年進行多項改革，例如允許「同股不同權」企業上市，以及吸引中概股回港作「第二上市」之措施；另外，港股通的推出亦令更多內地資金湧港，雖然會令港股變得「A股化」，但亦確實推升部分股份估值，變相吸近更多中概股回歸。
可以預期，未來一至兩年時間，中概股第二上市將成為利好港交所表現之一，同時日均成交量以及相關衍生工具亦有望進一步攀升，加上互聯互通等因素，相信港交所未來表現仍值得看高一線，可候調整至385至390元附近再作吸納。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，持有港交所股份)~
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