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华侨银行料本港末季经济续收缩 工商物业「减辣」刺激有限
阿思达克 11-30 15:16
华侨银行经济师谢栋铭及华侨永亨银行经济师李若凡发表报告称,行政长官新一份《施政报告》公布对抗疫情及重振经济的措施。不过,这些措施应该不足以减轻短期经济下行压力,因香港爆发第四波疫情,且政府再度收紧社交距离限制措施。尽管10月进口连续第二个月录得升幅,但出口意外回落。主要经济体重启封锁措施,料再次打压外需及香港贸易业。受此影响,第四季经济料持续收缩,尽管跌幅可能因低基数效应而有所收窄。

同样地,就商业物业市场而言,虽然政府自11月26日起撤销非住宅物业双倍从价印花税,但在商业环境欠佳、疫情不明朗、企业采取灵活的工作安排,以及消费模式出现转变的情况下,该市场的上涨空间料有限。

从好的方面来看,中期前景仍然乐观。首先,疫苗研发成功的希望,意味着全球经济活动可能恢复正常。其次,香港贸易及相关行业将受惠於区域化的快速发展。再者,粤港澳大湾区进一步融合发展,可能推动本地科技、贸易、金融等行业增长。

其他方面,上周股市收涨。同时,新一轮新股集资潮拉开序幕,其中京东健康(06618.HK)的招股反应最为热烈。这或有助投资者及企业在蚂蚁集团取消大型IPO後对香港IPO市场重拾信心。另外,值得注意的是,香港上市未有盈利的生物科技公司和内地科创板股票在符合特定条件下将被纳入深港通沪港通的合资格股票范围内。因此,该行预期未来一段时间内新股集资市场将保持活跃。

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