波司登(03998.HK)：品牌红利释放，业绩超预期，维持“买入”评级
机构：国盛证券
评级：买入
公司收入/业绩分别同增5.1%/41.8%。FY20/21H1公司收入/归母净利润分别同增5.1%/41.8%至46.6/4.9亿元。毛利率同增4.3PCTs至47.8%，主要系：1）产品结构优化，淡季销售次新品占比较多，零售折扣率相对良好；2）主品牌销售单价提升；3）羽绒服业务（尤其是直营渠道）占比提升。销售/管理费用率分别为25.8%/8.3%，较上年分别+0.7/+0.8PCTs，叠加去年同期女装业务存在商誉减值4800万，综合使得FY20/21H1净利率提升2.4PCTs至10.5%。
羽绒服主业强势增长，电商同增超80%。1）羽绒服业务引领增长：羽绒服业务收入同增18.0%至29.9亿元，占比提升7.0PCTs至64.1%。分渠道看，电商业务表现亮眼，同比增长86.2%至4.9亿元；直营/经销渠道（均包含线下与线上）分别同比+144.3%/-9.8%至11.1/18.3亿元。分品牌看，波司登品牌奠定增长基调，收入同增19.7%至27.3亿元。雪中飞/冰洁收入分别同增5.2%/2.1%至1.0/1.1亿元。2）OEM业务订单受疫情影响，H1收入同降8.9%至12.3亿元，占比26.4%。3）女装业务收入同减18.5%至4.1亿元，占比8.8%。
延续拉式补货优势+重视现金流管理，营运健康可控。供应链端延续拉式补货的一贯优势（首次订货占比由疫情前40%调低至30%左右），由于业务所需备货旺季，存货周转天数上升28.2天至197.1天，应收账款周转天数较上年同期增加12.4天至96.8天。账上现金及等价物17.2亿元，疫情之下整体营运状态健康可控。
电商业务有望发力，品牌红利释放带动盈利增长。新的销售季节到来，产品端迭代出新，冷冬之际推出系列新品上市，融合运动、时尚多元素推出时尚运动系列、城市运动系列、高缇耶设计师联名系列拉动销售。疫情期间线上渠道持续发力，公司重视电商渠道，根据公司公告，“双十一”购物节活动期间公司销售业绩亮眼，期间羽绒服业务线上流水同比增长超35%，其中波司登品牌线上流水同增超25%。4月1日至11月11日羽绒服业务线上流水同比增长超过45%，其中波司登品牌线上流水同增超35%。我们预计FY20/21公司羽绒服业务在量价带动下能够实现收入20%左右增长（线上增速高于线下），同时我们也判断品牌红利的释放有望持续。作为提效的一年，我们预计FY20/21依然会进行渠道革新工作，但涉及数量相对较少，整体业绩增速高于收入增速。
投资建议。公司是国民羽绒服第一品牌，长期看随着品牌转型、渠道革新、快反模式的建立，后续收入增长及盈利能力有望持续提升。我们预计公司FY20/21~22/23归母净利润15.0/18.3/21.6亿元，对应FY20/21PE为20倍，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：疫情持续时间超过预期，宏观经济增速放缓；主品牌复苏不达预期；暖冬影响终端销售情况。
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