敏华控股(01999.HK)：成本端扰动无需过度忧虑，内销靓丽外销复苏可期，维持“强烈推荐”评级
机构：长城证券
评级：强烈推荐
化学品价格波动影响有限，预计上半财年原材料对毛利率的影响仅有1pcpt。7月下旬以来，聚醚、TDI、MDI等化工原料价格反弹幅度较高，引发成本上行盈利水平承压的担忧。MDI、TDI、聚醚占公司总成本的比重较低，分别约为2%、3%和4.5%，公司毛利率对化学品价格的敏感性较低。上半财年来看，真皮、钢铁、木材平均价格同比分别+8%、-4%、+0.6%，化学品中MDI、TDI、聚醚平均价格同比分别-6.2%、-13.9%、+10.2%，我们测算原材料价格对上半财年毛利率的影响幅度约仅有1pp。
预计化工原料继续上行空间有限，供应链壁垒保证利润空间。聚醚方面，当前价格主要受终端需求旺季拉动，产业链供需矛盾主要集中在上游环丙。Q4随着环丙新产能冲击及需求旺季冲高回落，Q4继续上行空间有限，后续或随原材料价格逐渐回落。TDI进入供需博弈阶段，价格上行空间有限。MDIQ4检修较多，价格仍存继续提升可能，但占比较小影响可基本忽略。中长期看，公司已建立较为成熟的全球采购体系，可最大程度优化采购结构，压缩制造成本。同时，公司上游产业链布局具有较强的相对优势，海绵、电机、铁架均实现自主生产，成本控制能力较强。此外，随着公司自主品牌占比的提升和海外产能带来的供货能力提升，公司议价能力不断增强，原材料价格波动压力可一定程度上向下游转移。近五年来，公司原材料成本占收入的比重基本稳定在45%-50%的水平，波动幅度较低。
内销表现靓丽，外销开始迅速复苏。内销方面，公司在疫情期间积极推进品牌推广，加大线下引流投入，把握宅经济机遇加强品牌认知。根据草根调研结果，公司内销4月已基本恢复，Q2-3内销整体表现优异，线下渠道恢复正常营业后增长靓丽。中长期看，公司通过产品线优化及渠道下沉推动功能沙发渗透率提升，品牌壁垒不断强化。FY21财年公司加大品牌宣传力度，销售费用率或有所上升。逆势扩大品牌投放的策略不仅能够促进短期销售，更有利于功能沙发品牌渗透率加速提升及品牌市场份额的扩增，体现出管理层较为长远的战略目光。外销方面，越南产能相对优势明显，预计目前可覆盖绝大部分对美出货，对贸易摩擦的抵御性较强。尽管美国疫情仍在持续，但我们认为美国市场存在与国内类似的“宅经济”需求。考虑到美国复工复产时间晚于我国2-3个月，预计外销恢复也滞后内销约一个季度。我们认为，前期递延需求及疫情催生的新需求在Q3已开始体现，公司Q3外销有望恢复正增长。
投资建议：公司在后疫情时期充分把握“宅经济”机会，内销持续改善，外销也开始快速恢复；短期内原材料虽有较大涨幅，但后续继续上行空间有限，且化学品原材料占比较低，预计对毛利率的影响可控。考虑竣工回暖及疫情带来的增量需求，上调公司FY21/22EPS至0.50/0.61，对应PE20、16X，维持【强烈推荐】评级。
风险提示：原材料价格持续上涨，国内开店速度不及预期，中美贸易战升级，行业竞争加剧等。
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