20年4季度中国经济与资本市场展望:经济复苏,精彩不同
机构:海通证券
概要
1. 疫情影响持续减弱2. 全球复苏外需改善3. 中国经济率先复苏4. 宽松货币何时退出
新冠死亡率大降
虽然目前新冠疫情并没有结束,全球感染人数还在持续增加,而且还没有有效的疫苗出现。但有一个最重要的好消息,就是新冠病毒导致的死亡率大幅下降,目前全球和美国的新冠死亡率均从峰值的7%左右降至3%左右的水平,远低于SARS当年11%的死亡率。

美国:医疗资源占用下降
以美国为例,目前美国是全球感染新冠病毒最多的国家,其累计感染人数已经达到600万人,而且每周的新增感染人数依然维持在30万人左右的历史高峰。但是由于治疗水平等的进步,美国感染新冠病毒住院的人数已经从4月份6万人左右的高峰下降至当前的不到4 万人。无论是感染新冠病毒住在ICU病房的人数,还是使用呼吸机的人数,目前都远低于4、5月份高峰时的水平,这意味着新冠病毒对医疗资源的占用也在明显下降因而新冠病毒产生的伤害也显著下降。
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