November 28, 2025 — Despite inflationary pressures and a high-interest-rate environment, U.S. consumers exhibited strong spending momentum during this year's Black Friday shopping season. Not only did Black Friday set a new record for online spending, but it also highlighted the "rational yet sustained" purchasing behavior of American consumers amidst economic pressures and promotional incentives. With e-commerce channels expanding, AI tools permeating the shopping process, and foot traffic at physical stores showing significant recovery, the signals released by this shopping season will serve as a key economic indicator for the remainder of the year.

Record-Breaking Online Spending, Black Friday's Total Spend Reaches $11.8 Billion

According to final monitoring data from Adobe Analytics, U.S. consumers spent approximately $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, up more than 9% from last year's $10.8 billion, setting a new historical high for the day. The significant growth in online spending this year was mainly driven by more consumers researching prices in advance, using AI tools for smart price comparisons, and the extended promotional period that helped maintain shopping momentum. Adobe also pointed out that from early November to Black Friday, cumulative online spending exceeded $11.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of about 7%. The total online retail scale for the holiday season is expected to surpass $253 billion, indicating that overall holiday season spending may once again set a historical record. For retail companies, this strong online demand not only boosts traffic and order volume but also poses new challenges in inventory management and fulfillment efficiency.

Peak Traffic and Mobile Sales Growth

The traffic peak this year was equally remarkable. During Black Friday’s shopping peak hours, U.S. consumers spent an average of over $12.5 million per minute online. With the continuous optimization of mobile shopping experiences, the widespread adoption of smart recommendations, and improved personalized discounts, the share of mobile orders during Black Friday continued to rise, with mobile now accounting for more than half of online sales for the entire holiday season.

Omnichannel Sales Growth: Offline Traffic Rebounds, but Consumer Behavior Becomes More Rational

Data from Mastercard SpendingPulse reveals that U.S. overall retail sales (both online and offline) grew by approximately 4.1% year-over-year, excluding automotive goods. Of this, online sales grew more than 10%, while offline physical store sales increased by 1.7%, showing a structural shift where online growth outpaces offline. This indicates that, amidst changing consumer habits, e-commerce remains the most resilient growth driver for U.S. retail.

Apparel, home goods, and electronics were the main drivers of retail growth. Online sales of apparel grew by about 6% year-over-year, while offline sales rose more than 5%, reflecting the combined effect of festive shopping and homecoming demand. Meanwhile, consumer electronics remained the core category for Black Friday, with significant discounts on popular items such as televisions, headphones, and smartwatches, driving a broad expansion of the customer base.

However, despite a noticeable post-pandemic recovery in foot traffic to shopping malls on Black Friday, overall consumer behavior became more cautious. Multiple consumer surveys showed that while the frequency of in-store visits increased, actual purchase decisions were delayed, reflecting the "compare more, impulse less" trend influenced by inflation, rising rents, and increasing credit costs. This cautious sentiment made Black Friday sales more reliant on deep promotions and brand strategies rather than the traditional peak-burst sales model.

AI-Enhanced Shopping Becomes Mainstream: Price Comparison, Recommendations, and Dynamic Discounts Reshape the Consumer Path

This year’s Black Friday saw AI’s influence on e-commerce consumption reach new heights. According to data from relevant platforms, the frequency of using AI-driven product searches, price comparisons, and smart recommendations increased significantly compared to last year, with e-commerce traffic driven by AI recommendations growing nearly eightfold. Smart price comparison tools enabled consumers to monitor discount ranges across different platforms in real-time, reducing decision-making costs and improving order efficiency, which directly boosted conversion rates.

Retailers have further enhanced their algorithmic capabilities in backend operations, offering customized discounts based on more granular customer profiles. For example, in certain categories, high-engagement users received dynamic discounts nearly 20% higher than average users, allowing brands to optimize transaction structures without increasing overall discount costs. For e-commerce platforms, this technological capability is driving the shift from traditional "unified discounts" to "smart personalized offers."

AI also accelerated the improvement of mobile shopping experiences. Many platforms used AI to predict shopping demand, pre-load product content before users began browsing, and increased page response speeds. AI-powered chat assistants also alleviated customer service pressure. With the expanding application of generative AI in the retail sector, Black Friday became an important window for the release of these effects.

Economic Signals and Future Outlook: Resilience Amidst Pressure

This year’s Black Friday performance shows that despite facing pressures such as high interest rates and a slowing job market, U.S. consumer spending remains resilient. The growth in both online and offline sales, especially the strong online performance, suggests that consumers are still responsive to promotions. However, consumers are becoming more rational, focusing on price comparisons and practical purchases, and reducing impulsive spending. This has pushed retailers to invest more in targeted marketing and supply chain efficiency, rather than relying solely on discount promotions.

From a capital market perspective, Black Friday data will be an important reference for the fourth-quarter economy, particularly impacting retail, logistics, and e-commerce companies. In the short term, strong data will help support market sentiment. In the long run, the adjustment of AI-driven promotional models may alter retail profit structures and competitive dynamics.

This year’s Black Friday reflects consumer resilience under economic pressure, rapid responses to discounts, and a more rational spending trend. With Cyber Monday and the Christmas season sales approaching, U.S. consumer spending will continue to be a critical observation point for the global economy.