福莱特玻璃（6865.HK）：2020H1业绩预告符合预期，维持“买入”评级，目标价9.15港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：9.15港元
投资要点
公司2020H1业绩预告符合预期。公司发布2020H1业绩预增公告，预计实现归母净利润4.2-4.7亿元，同比增加60.92-80.08%，符合我们预测的4.63亿元的预期。我们推测公司上半年由于2-3月份玻璃较高库存的影响，实际二季度出货量明显高于一季度，4-6月份玻璃低价时期有较高的出货量。但是，由于二季度开始高毛利率的双玻出货占比明显提升，叠加成本端纯碱和天然气价格的环比明显下降，使利润率水平仍然保持良好状态，我们预计公司光伏玻璃板块2020H1的毛利率约为34%。
顺利融资为未来新产能建设奠定基础。2020年5月公司顺利完成了可转债发行工作，募资14.5亿元。6月，公司又公告计划于年内定增预计募集资金20亿元，计划再增加2条1200吨的光伏玻璃产线的建设。
我们的观点：福莱特玻璃是稳居全球光伏玻璃市场份额第二的企业，随着产能扩张，预计未来继续实现市占率的提升。根据公司和行业的最新情况，我们将公司2020年的收入和利润预测分别下调5.4%和6.0%，主要调低了光伏玻璃的均价预测，但也部分被双玻出货占比提升和成本下降抵消，将公司2021年的收入和利润预测分别下调7.9%和上调1.0%，主要考虑到双玻占比提升带来高利润率贡献，并将2022年的收入和利润预测上调6.5%和22.2%，主要是对终端需求预期展望更加乐观。我们预计公司2020-2022年的收入分别为5,724、7,387和9,845百万元，归母净利润分别为890、1,327和1,818百万元，2020年6月30日H股股价对应的P/E分别为15.93、11.30和8.25倍，维持“买入”评级，由于预计未来一年行业需求景气度明显转好且公司良好的融资也为长期的发展打下坚实基础，按照未来一年15倍PE测算将目标价从5.96港元上调为9.15港元。
风险提示：1、国内光伏需求不及预期；2、海外光伏需求大幅下滑；3、公司产能建设慢于预期。
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