波司登(03998.HK)：短期波动不改长期价值，坚定看好品牌势能持续提升，维持“买入”评级
机构：东吴证券
评级：买入
投资要点
事件：波司登公布 FY20 年报：波司登 FY20 收入 122 亿，同增 17.4%，归母净利润 12.0 亿，同增 22.6%。公司宣布每股派息 0.06 港币，全年每股派息 0.09 港币，股息率 3.7%，派息率超过 70%。
品牌羽绒服业务受到疫情和暖冬双重影响，增速及库存如期承压。公司品牌羽绒服业务收入同增 24.2%至 95.1 亿，分部营业利润同增 9.6%至 15.2 亿（预估可比口径同增 21.5%）；其中波司登主品牌虽受疫情及暖冬影响，但在持续的品牌营销投入和产品更新下，依旧录得 23%的增长至 84亿。库存方面，公司存货同增 41%至 27.3 亿，存货周转天数同增 24天至 155天，主要由于今年无法在春节后进行正常销售，而该销售比例大概占全年销售 10%左右，拖累了全年库存表现。公司全年经营性现金流 12.3亿（新准则），整体保持平稳。
OEM 业务利润率提升，女装业务受到减值影响。OEM 业务收入同增 17.8%至 16亿，分部营业利润同增 41%至 2.1亿，利润率的提升主要由于流程优化、技术改造和规模增长带来的毛利率提升和费用节约。女装业务则由于疫情带来的影响收入下滑 18%至 9.8 亿，同时由于女装业务计提9800 万减值损失，其营业利润下降 45.5%至 0.8亿。
短期波动不改公司近三年来品牌建设成效，持续向上趋势依旧明确。虽然受到疫情影响公司短期增速和库存水平受到挑战，但是公司过去三年的品牌转型成果依旧值得肯定，持续向上的趋势未变：（1）品牌认知方面，公司成功的营销宣传和国际秀场活动，使波司登品牌持续保持 60%中国消费者心中首选羽绒服专家品牌地位，品牌认知度持续提升；（2）粉丝运营上，截至 FY20波司登拥有会员 1500万，微信公众号粉丝 500万人，30岁以下消费者占比 16.3%，会员消费及复购占线下销售金额的 68%/26%；（3）产品单价上，FY20 波司登天猫旗舰店 1200-1800/1800+价位段成交金额占比分别达到 20%/51%（去年同期 14%/55%），1200以上价位段产品占比超过 70%，体现出消费者对品牌不断提升的认可度。
盈利预测及投资建议：考虑到 FY20 疫情带来的库存压力，我们认为公司在 FY21的羽绒服业务（尤其批发渠道）会迎来一定调整；同时 OEM 业务及女装业务也因为疫情影响收入增速预计有所下降，因此我们下调 FY21 的业绩预测以反应疫情带来的后续影响。但是我们长期看好公司持续向上的趋势，公司过去三年的从品牌建设、产品创新、到零售运营上的努力效果依旧明显，作为国产品牌中难得的品类龙头，我们认为短期的波动并不改变其持续向上的品牌势能。预计 FY21/FY22/FY23 净利润 13.9 亿/19.2 亿/23.6 亿元，消费同比增长 15.5%/37.8%/23.3%，对应 PE 17X/12X/10X，长期持续看好，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：新冠肺炎影响时间长于预期，天气变化使终端零售需求不及预期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
