莱坊林浩文:差估署指数短期内跌幅或进一步扩大
本港2月私宅楼价指数跌幅扩至2.1%创一年低,莱坊执行董事及估价及谘询部主管林浩文表示,指数下跌符合预期,并开始反映的疫情影响,估计未来1至2个月会指数跌幅可能会扩大,住宅成交量亦会下跌20%至30%。除非楼价在短期内大跌,否则估计政府「唔会减辣」。
他补充,相估楼市不会像2003年SARS般的大跌,因现时业主的持货能力比当年好及息口低,在各项外围及本地因素下,估计今年未来数月楼市会比较波动,可能要到第三至第四季才平稳。以全年计,估计住宅楼市会向下调整10%,跌幅主要集中在上半年。
整体而言,他预期,因疫情及经济可能持续变差,预期今年一、二手住宅成交量会比去年少,成交量约5.5万至5.8万宗左右,二手比例因政府新措施会有所提升。
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