国信证券:予中芯国际(0981.HK)“买入”评级
国信证券发布报告称,预计中芯国际(0981.HK)2019~2021年收入分别为31.32亿美元/36.04亿美元/40.59亿美元,增速分别为-6.8%/15.1%/12.6%,2019~2021年利润分别为2.07亿美元/1.84亿美元/2.26亿美元,增速55%/-11%/23%。公司合理PB估值范围为2.5~2.7倍,对应22~23.7港元,维持业绩预测,予“买入”评级。
该行表示,公司2019年Q4公司营收8.4亿美元,环比增加2.8%,符合指引(2%~4%)。若不含已经出售的阿扎为8寸厂,环比增长4.6%(指引4%~6%)。而2019Q4毛利1.99亿美元,环比增加17.4%,同比增加48.7%。公司的收入、毛利、毛利率从2019Q1以来一直保持上升趋势,Q4毛利率继续提升至23.8%。一季度是传统的淡季,从公司的指引来看,淡季不淡,因为公司对2020Q1收入指引环比增加0~2%,按此计算同比增加26.8%。
另外,2019Q4第一代FinFET 14nm贡献1%收入,14nm能够大规模出货,半导体国制造的国产化替代相当成功。除了高端麒麟用到7nm以外,14nm及以上的工艺完全满足国内芯片设计公司的代工需求。所以,14nm能够大规模出货,将是内地半导体的重大转折点。
该行称,2019Q4来自内地和香港的收入占比提升至65.1%,符合之前的预判,公司的产能和工艺技术能够承接上游芯片设计公司的代工订单转移。该行还称,公司的工艺技术节点突破是关键。应该先看技术,再看收入,最后才是利润,而中长期则看好国产化替代大背景下的内地工厂崛起。

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