麦格理:内地明年车市复苏放缓 料华晨、东风及广汽“跑赢大市”
麦格理发表报告表示,下调明年内地汽车销售预期5%,当中即使2019年销售大跌的基础下,预期乘用车明年亦仅按年升0.5%,主因环球经济放缓,打击较低级城市的需求;家庭杠杆增加及通胀上升;以及消费信心减弱等。
该行认为,继深圳及广州後,预期明年有更多重点城市放宽汽车牌照限制,惟相信政府发布需要较多财政支持政策的机会较低,因考虑到财政压力。因此该行对汽车行业的偏好次序分别是高端>低端>新能源汽车,当中持续看好高端且拥有较强合营品牌将受惠於换车需求带动;对低端品牌面对的市场竞争加剧感忧虑;而新能源汽车补贴下降带来负面影响。
麦格理补充,由於预期明年上半年汽车销售仍受压,故短期汽车股有下行风险。该行予华晨(01114.HK)、东风(00489.HK)及广汽(02238.HK)“跑赢大市”评级,比亚迪(01211.HK)及长城汽车(02333.HK)“跑输大市”评级。
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