石药集团(1093.HK)：业绩符合预期，恩必普及抗肿瘤新药双驱动，维持“买入”评级
机构：国金证券
评级：买入
事件
今日，公司发布2019三季报，业绩符合预期。收入约167.6亿人民币，同增27.5%；毛利率约70.9%，同比升5.7%；归母约28.1亿元，同比增24%；实现基本EPS为0.45元。
点评
恩必普Q3单季仍保持较好增速，与抗肿瘤药双驱动延续：核心品种恩必普是公司业绩第一大驱动因素，目前基层渗透较低，预计未来渠道下沉、院外推广、以及OTC渠道尝试等方案将是该品种主要发展方向。预计Q1-Q3收入约40亿元（同比约35.7%），Q3收入12.4亿（同比约34.5%）。公司第二大驱动因素为抗肿瘤药，抗肿瘤领域前三季度同比增速约170.7%，其中白蛋白紫杉醇快速放量，同比约590.4%，今年有望销售额超15亿元。另外，多美素及津优力前三季度同比增速约118%及129.5%。
原料药Q3业绩有所回落，普药依靠品种优势有望环比改善稳定增长：公司整体原料药版块符合预期，业绩回落，未来预计维持稳定，预计未来新诺威维持稳定，VC价格企稳略微回升，抗生素战略性地位逐步下降。普药版块随着销售改革和优势品种放量，整体增速稳健。今年带量采购扩面全国谈判中，公司新批品种氯吡格雷进入目录，预计明年放量，有望销售额达到4-5亿元，期待阿卡波糖的进展。另外，阿比多尔明年销售贡献业绩。
公司研发投入提升，在研管线不断丰富，研发平台价值凸显：公司2019年Q1-Q3研发投入约15亿元，同比增速约64%，研发投入力度加大，符合预期。实体瘤创新管线已确定后选品种26项，小分子12项，大分子14项，11项进入临床，15项临床前。建议关注公司NDDS新剂型改进品种，有望在中国市场中放量销售，例如有望明年上市的两性霉素B脂质体和米托蒽醌脂质体，及伊立替康脂质体等品种。以及处于临床II-III期的新药品种，如抗CD20单克隆抗体（SCT400）、抗EGFR单克隆抗体（JMT101）、抗RANKL单克隆抗体（JMT103）、PI3K抑制剂等
估值与盈利预测
公司业绩稳定增长，研发加大投入稳定推进。我们给予2019-2021三年EPS为0.74/0.91/1.10元，PE为27.7/22.6/18.7倍。
风险提示
带量采购进度不确定；辅助用药政策对品种的影响不确定；研发进展存在不确定；19年及以后业绩调为人民币结算，预测模型存在汇率不确定性。
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