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腾讯控股(00700.HK):新业务发展快速,广告下行,维持“增持”评级,目标估值区间380至400港元
格隆汇 11-14 15:15

机构:国信证券

评级:增持

目标估值区间:380至400港元

收入低于预期,广告增速继续下行

三季度收入同比增长21%,至972亿元,低于市场预期。今年广告业务从一季度就略低于预期,三季度加速下行。这反应了:1、来自头条的竞争;2、中国宏观经济承压的现状。三季度广告收入增速仅为13%,创公司上市以来的新低水平。其中社交广告32%的增长,媒体广告同比下降28%。按照我们对于宏观经济的判断,料Q4的广告增速将成为增速的低点。

游戏韧性强,海外游戏将有望成为新的增长点

游戏业务保持稳定的增长,手机游戏同比增长25%,网络游戏同比增长11%。主要是王者荣耀的基本盘稳定,《和平精英》亦获得不菲收益,递延收入较Q2有明显提升,三季度以来,海外游戏增长较快,《PUBGMOBILE》的月活跃账户数同比增长一倍,《CallofDutyMobile》下载量超过1亿。

支付与云业务保持较快增长

三季度支付与云保持了较快的增长,增速为36%,同时,云收入同比增长80%至47亿元。我们看到,随着今年支付业务竞争趋缓,腾讯支付宝在商户返佣折扣降低,同时公司积极开展增值业务,使得支付业务毛利率稳健提升,这为明后年支付业务盈利的规模提升奠定基础。

投资建议

我们小幅下调2019-2020年收入增速为22%(0pct)、20%(-1pct),净利润增速至23%、17%(持平),预计广告业务触底约在Q4,2019、2020年的EPS为港币11.1元、13.7元,考虑人民币升值,且经济触底回升广告将回暖,我们维持增持评级,及维持目标估值区间380至400港币,当前股价对应2019-2020年的PE为27X,23X。

风险提示

宏观经济的不确定性对广告业务带来的不利影响,游戏增长不达预期。

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