腾讯控股(00700.HK)：长期拐点正在接近，重要的是金融业务！给予“买入”评级，目标价398.50港元
机构：国金证券
评级：买入
目标价：398.50港元
基本结论
过去6个月，腾讯股价累计下跌15%，跑输恒生指数7%。然而，我们认为腾讯已经找到了下一个战略增长点——金融科技；在微信小程序的带动下，企业服务、智慧零售等B端业务也将带来惊喜。游戏业务在2020年仍是产品上升周期，在长期也找到了新的突破口。最大的软肋是广告业务，但是并不是致命伤。现在，终于再次到了买入腾讯的时机。
我们对腾讯的金融科技业务进行详尽拆分，从支付GMV、货币化率、非支付业务、成本率等多个角度测算。结论是：腾讯在移动支付市场份额上占据了压倒性优势，有效货币化率正在提升，高利润的理财和贷款业务发展速度很快。2020年，金融科技与企业服务业务将产生收入1406亿元、毛利563亿元（其中毛利全部来自金融科技），成为与游戏并列的支柱业务。
微信是金融科技业务成功的立足点，也是云计算、智慧零售等创新业务的支点。微信小程序不但是腾讯进军电商、线下零售的王牌，还促使腾讯云在PaaS/SaaS业务上取得先手。腾讯广告业务的复苏，归根结底还是要靠微信；我们并不赞成所谓“微信用户时长正在下降”的说法。
2019年是腾讯手游业务的大年，2020年也是——《地下城与勇士》《英雄联盟》将成为“端转手”时代最后的爆款；通过并购和推出热门IP产品，腾讯在欧美游戏市场的影响力不断提升。我们认为，2020年腾讯手游收入的增速完全可以超过2019年。在长期，腾讯积极布局海外、VR/AR和互动影像叙事等战略方向，从而保证在下一个世代继续领跑。
投资建议
从Non-GAAPP/E看，腾讯的估值处于2016年以来的最低水平。受到存款备付金上缴的影响，市场低估了金融科技业务的实际增速，也尚未理解海外游戏市场的进展。市场还没有充分体现腾讯对外投资的实际价值。
我们估计腾讯2019-21年收入CAGR21.7%，Non-GAAP净利润CAGR26.1%；Non-GAAPEPS分别为人民币9.95/13.06/16.31元。基于SOTP法，我们赋予腾讯核心业务23倍2020年P/E，加上投资公司价值，得到目标价398.50港元。将评级从“中性”上调至“买入”。
风险因素：监管风险，新业务风险，技术替代风险，战略投资风险。
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