汽车困境反转否极泰来
机构：天风证券
投资建议：
目前行业去库存阶段接近尾声，加库存周期或开启。乘用车板块看好行业在 两年左右的去库存结束之时，带来行业去产能之后的龙头机遇。零部件板块 择股从两方面入手：1）高 ROE 龙头成长；2）迎 ROE 拐点的弹性标的。
乘用车：推荐日系高增长、自主迎拐点的【广汽集团 A/H】，行业巨头、高 分红低估值的【上汽集团】；建议关注高业绩弹性自主龙头【长城汽车 A/H】。
零部件-龙头成长：继续推荐【潍柴动力、福耀玻璃、华域汽车、岱美股份、 玲珑轮胎、均胜电子、精锻科技】，建议关注： 【耐世特、星宇股份】等。
零部件-ROE 拐点：推荐 ROE 反转空间较大、PEG 较低的【岱美股份、爱柯 迪、旭升股份、保隆科技、拓普集团、宁波高发】，建议关注业绩开始复苏、 估值处于低位的【万里扬、伯特利、宁波华翔、广东鸿图、新坐标、华懋 科技】等。
报告摘要：
行业去库结束，迎接加库存周期，景气度有望稳步复苏。2019 年前 9 月全 国乘用车实现产销 1507.5 万辆和 1524.9（批发）万辆，分别同比下降 13.1% 和 11.7%。从季度来看，行业遭遇了连续 5 个季度的同比下降，但目前环比 已有回暖之势，乘用车 19Q3 销量同比下降 6.0%，较 19Q1 的-13.8%和 19Q2 的-14.3%已大幅收窄。此外，行业库存已处近几年的底部，我们预计，随 4 季度消费情绪回暖，行业逐步进入加库存周期，带动明年销量重回正增长。
乘用车和零部件板块业绩触底反弹，拉开汽车行业复苏序章。19Q3 汽车板 块业绩实现触底反弹。从营收端看，乘用车板块营收同比增速由 19Q2 的 -16.2%升至 19Q3 的-1.0%（若剔除上汽集团，则从-3.5%升至-1.9%）；零部件 板块营收同比增速由 19Q2 的-3.5%升至 19Q3 的 0.7%（若剔除华域、潍柴、 均胜，则从-3.1%升至 4.8%）。 从利润端看，乘用车板块 19Q3 扣非归母净利 润同比下降 56.2%，但较 19Q2 的下降 66.1%明显好转；零部件板块扣非归母 净利润同比下降 3.9%，显著优于 19Q2 的同比下降 20.7%。毛利率方面，乘 用车板块毛利率环比小幅恢复至 12.5%；零部件板块小幅下滑，维持在 20.8%。
板块估值与机构持仓仍处低位。截止 11 月 1 日，乘用车板块 PE-TTM 和 PB 分别为 18 和 1.3 倍，PB 目前估值处于 2006 年后的第二低点（金融危机期 间为第一低点）。零部件板块 PE-TTM 和 PB 分别为 26 和 2 倍，估值均处于 历史低位。此外，截止三季度汽车机构持仓比例仍仅为 1.90%，较最高时 5.13% 和均值 3.44%，仍有较大的提升空间。
风险提示：汽车行业景气度持续低迷、贸易战力度升级，上游原材料价格大 幅波动等。
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