【医药生物】中,美,印仿制药产业链比较
机构：长江证券
欧美：TEVA、Mylan怎么了？
从上世纪80年代开始，伴随全球仿制药市场的兴起，全球第一大仿制药企业TEVA、第三大仿制药企业Mylan均实现过百倍的市值成长。然而，2016年以来，两家公司利润和股价均出现大幅下滑，2019年两家公司的中报更是双双呈现为亏损状态。全球仿制药巨头的股价颓势，叠加带量采购后国内仿制药市场的巨大变革，不禁使市场对仿制药行业乃至中国仿制药企业的前景产生了担忧。
我们认为，TEVA、Mylan两家欧美巨头的业绩和股价压力，除自身并购不及预期等因素外，更主要原因还在于中印仿制药新秀的冲击。因此，尽管欧美大型仿制药企业或将进一步承压，但中国仿制药龙头的前景依然充满光明。
中印：正逐步重构全球仿制药市场格局
仿制药和原料药业务，我们认为其本质属性在于制造。从这一点上来看，中印企业的原料药制剂一体化和综合成本优势具有重要意义，并有望最终胜出。只是药品的注册壁垒和技术壁垒较高，因此这一进程滞后于其他许多产业。从目前情况来看：1）2000年后，印度药企便将欧美市场作为布局的重点。经过20年的积累，已成为全球仿制药领域的重要竞争者；2）过去较长周期中，中国企业的业务重心仍在于国内。但随着新一轮药政改革落地、领先企业的能力逐渐完备，中国药企的国际化进程已开始明显提速，并存在后来居上的可能。
本土市场加持，中国仿制药龙头前景更加远大
对中国药企构成额外利好的是，经过近20年的快速发展，我们的本土药品市场已经成长为全球第二。由于药政、渠道等壁垒，我们预计未来较长周期中国内市场仍将主要表现为本土企业与原研企业的竞争，这为中国仿制药巨头的诞生创造了更加有利的条件。
短期来看，本土领先仿制药企业或侧重国内，或侧重海外，战略重心略有差异。但在长周期中，伴随国内和欧美市场质量体系、竞争规则的趋同，企业的成长路径也有望并轨。依托本土和欧美两大市场，我们认为中国仿制药产业仍具备持续快速增长的潜力，并有望培育出数家甚至更多全球性的大型仿制药企业。我们继续高度看好国内仿制药龙头的未来成长和投资机会。
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