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惠誉:对香港展望负面因社会仍持续不稳 倘冲突解决或采正面行动
阿思达克 09-10 14:08

惠誉中国内地及香港董事兼首席分析师Andrew Fennell出席记者会时表示,该行早前将香港评级下调至「AA」级,主要因为香港与中国在政治、经济多方面连系增加,而近月的社会事件令国际社会对香港政府管治及法治观感造成影响。在社会政治方面,近期中国对香港亦采取了更公开的取态,包括港澳办多次召开记者会评论香港状况,以及官媒多番评论香港等。该行对香港展望负面主要因为政府虽回应了示威者的部分诉求,但社会不稳定情况仍持续,很有可能会继续影响香港的国际声誉。

至於香港评级下调会否影响企业发债及融资活动,他强调「AA」的评级实际上仍十分高,反映香港有很大的经济缓冲,加上储备占GDP达四成,对香港联系汇率制度亦有信心,而本地公共财政管理亦十分稳健。

他又指,惠誉不能为政府提政策建议,但可能导致惠誉采取正面评级的行动包括是持续的社会冲突得到解决,并带动商业信心持续复苏,或者是中国的主权信用状况有改善。至於展望负面何时会反映在评级上,他指出针对香港暂时未有具体的时间表,而全球主权评级主管麦克名(James McCormack)则指,参考纪录过往负面展望有约65%个案最终会导致评级下调,通常历时八至九个月左右,但强调相关数据仅属统计数字,未知何时会再调整香港的评级。

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