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财报前瞻丨三四线城市消费助推阿里高增长
友信资讯 08-14 14:37

【财报公布时间】

阿里巴巴将会在北京时间2019年8月15日公布其财报。

【摘要】

下沉市场开拓有方 助推业绩增长

新零售本地化快速推进 战略性生态扩张

【回顾】

阿里巴巴2019财年收入3768.44亿元,同比增长51%;2019财年Q4收入934.98亿元,同比增长51%;2019年财年核心电商收入同比增长51%;2019财年Q4核心电商收入同比增长54%。

淘宝在2019财年77%的年度活跃消费者增长来自于下沉市场。目前,淘宝已深入到三四线城市,甚至是偏远地区。除了淘宝,天猫、盒马鲜生、优酷、饿了么等均在不断扩大在底线市场的渗透率。

【本季度预测】

下沉城市开拓有方,国内电商业务有望稳健成长。淘宝直播等内容化改版、重新推出聚划算主打低线市场性价比消费,叠加支付宝等生态引流,阿里国内电商用户重回增长轨道。

在第一季度,天猫国际上增加了全英文入口,这将扩大天猫平台的产品选择,有助于公司季度增长。此外阿里还与义乌政府签署了建立电子商务贸易中心的协议,这将加强跨境电子商务活动。

付费用户的增加和阿里云使用量的增加是阿里云业务本季度的核心增长动力。

新零售和本地生活业务快速推进,以盒马为代表的新零售、以及以饿了么口碑为代表的本地生活服务依然是阿里在下沉之外重要的生态扩张战略性业务。依据盒马官网披露2019年盒马新增门店42家,开店数同比增加30%,累计门店数达到160家。

阿里巴巴是当代中国互联网公司领导者之一,商业生态建设领先,建议持续关注低线市场渗透、本地生活和海外市场建设。

根据广发零售的指引本季度阿里巴巴整体收入分别为5052/6720/8649亿元,non-GAAP净利润分别1167/1576/2150亿元。

19家机构给出的一致目标价位251.3美元,一致评级给出了买入评级。

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