畅捷通(1588.HK)中国小微企业云服务领军者首次给予“增持”评级目标价15.94港元
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：15.94 港元
本报告导读： 畅捷通是中国小微企业管理软件和云服务的领军企业，未来云服务收入将超市场预 期。目前云服务的渗透率在中国仍然较低，未来有足够的成长空间。 摘要： [Table_Summary] 首次覆盖，增持评级。预计 2019-2021 年公司软件业务收入分别为 3.72/3.72/3.72 亿元，对应净利润分别为 2.6/2.6/2.6 亿元，云服务收入 分别为 0.80/1.36/2.31 亿元。按照分部估值方法，给予公司 2019 年软 件业务 8 倍 PE，云服务 9.4 倍 PS，对应目标价 15.94 元港币。
公司是中国小微企业软件服务领导者。畅捷通的业务可以追溯到 2005 年，用友的小型管理软件事业部刚刚成立之时，2010 年成立畅捷通软 件，2014 年在香港联交所上市，2016 年公司软件累计用户数超过 100 万，2018 年云服务累计付费用户超过 10 万，公司已经成为事实上的 中国小微企业软件服务市场领导者。
从云计算服务支出的角度看，中国市场云计算渗透率仍然较低，公司 云服务收入增长将超预期。赛迪顾问发布的《中小微企业云服务发展 白皮书》显示，2017 年，我国云服务渗透率为 43.7%，即国内用云上 云的企业比例已经超过 40%，但同期我国企业云化水平仅为 3.3%，即 云计算服务支出在 IT 总支出中的比例较低。公司云产品布局完善， 随着畅捷通产品的不断迭代，我们认为未来公司的云服务收入增长将 超预期。
从资产负债表角度，公司经营极其稳健，有息负债为 0，同时账上现 金充足，分红率保持在较高水平。根据公司 2018 年年报，账面货币 资金 8 亿元人民币，其他金融资产 3.85 亿元人民币，当前市值仅为 15.55 亿人民币，此外，公司没有有息负债，经营极其稳健。公司 2018 年股息率高达 6.41%，分红比例较高，对保守投资者有较大吸引力。
风险提示：转云进度不及预期，传统软件业务受宏观经济下滑影响
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