昨日李宁(2331.HK)股价创新高股价是否提前反映未来业绩?
昨日,李宁(2331.HK)股价微涨0.21%,收报19.3港元,盘中创下自2010年11月以来的新高19.98港元,市值440亿港元。今日股价继续高开低走。自发布业绩之后,李宁股价已持续走高了一段时间。
近年来,李宁多次亮相巴黎、纽约等海外时装周,每次新潮的鞋服总能带来惊喜,继而大家将对它美好的预期传递到股价上。从6月中旬巴黎2020时装周造势以来已近一个月,股价至今上涨了35%。
李宁引领着国货新潮流,一直采用的时装走秀+海内外媒体宣传炒作+明星带货+李宁效应的饥饿营销战略,这是促使它成功的重要因素,市场对此也并不反感。从最近巴黎时装周展出的产品来看,相比以往,颜色搭配更加靓丽,款式更潮,预计能较好的迎合年轻人的需求, 2019-2020财年销量、产品溢价会得到较大提升。
渠道方面来看,回顾今年618购物节,天猫统计李宁的产品销售高达1亿元,说明产品力提升后较受市场欢迎,电商渠道铺设有成效。电商渠道未来会进一步加强,预计未来这部分收入会提升到占总收入30%的水平。
2018年推出 “中国李宁”品牌,定位中高端,更能贴近潮流以满足年轻一代的需求。2018年末门店数达23家,预计2019提升至100家左右。这会有助于巩固李宁的品牌战略,并且带来利润率的提升。它应该是未来对业绩贡献最大的品牌。
我们切实感受到它在巩固品牌定位、市场占有率方面的努力,并且十分欣赏它的执行力。李宁的产品设计近年来颇受市场欢迎,说明内部设计师对取悦消费者口味有一定经验和设计水平。
从供应链来看,今年5月时,李宁投资的广西供应基地正式启动,这是生产外包30年以来首次建厂。它在今年2月份,四条生产线开始投产,目前生产团队超过900人。未来,还计划建立年产1000万件运动服的生产项目。
李宁是采用外包形式的品牌商,外包虽然轻资产运作投入少,风险低,但生产环节要让利给工厂,如果自建工厂,投入高,但生产环节的利润变得可控。未来变成像安踏、特步那样外包+自建的形式,对零售端的调整能够更灵活。
当然,国际一线运动品牌也在加速布局中国市场,这是李宁需要面对的竞争压力。在高科技的专业鞋服方面,消费者依然更亲睐耐克、阿迪达斯、亚瑟士等国际品牌。而且,李宁大肆扩张之后,产品质量是否能够有效保障,这些都是它在逐步扩张过程中,必然会面临的问题。
综合考虑,受益于未来中国的运动服装行业较大的增长势头,公司2019年上半年业绩有大幅度的增长,我们预计李宁的年均复合增长率将达到40%,收入保持稳定在20%~25%。扣非归母净利润率将从2018年的6.8亿扩大至2019年12亿,对应PE 38倍。

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