中金公司(3908.HK)阿里巴巴与海尔成为公司新股东“收集“评级目标价20.09港元
机构:国泰君安
评级:收集
目标价:20.09港元
在2019年过去几个月A股市场成交量同比较大幅度增长以及科创板与“沪伦通”推出的背景下,我们预计公司经纪业务2019年将维持相对平稳。考虑到公司在投行业务方面的优势以及CDR发行与科创板推出的正面影响,我们预计公司的投行业务2019年将录得平稳增长。我们预测2019/2020/2021年每股收益分别同比增长12.2%/26.8%/15.0%至0.931元人民币、1.180元人民币、1.356元人民币。
未来一段时间,我们预计以下因素将支撑公司的估值:
1)我们预计阿里巴巴集团的投资以及对海尔的股份转让将使公司投资者结构多元化并将使其股权结构进一步优化。阿里巴巴和海尔将会与公司在金融、科技、数据以及其他领域方面合作,预期将进一步推进相关业务发展;
2)公司在投行业务方面的优势预计将使其受益于CDR发行与科创板推出。
考虑到当前市场估值,我们将我们对公司的目标价从17.34港元上调至20.09港元,相当于19.0倍/15.0倍/13.0倍的2019-2021年市盈率以及1.7倍/1.5倍/1.4倍2019-2021年市净率。同时,我们维持对公司的“收集”投资评级。

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