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《大行報告》中金料美高梅中國、阿里影業、周生生等業績有望超過市場預期
中金發表報告指,海外中資股2023年業績期將於3月下旬進入高峰期,針對中金覆蓋範圍內的491家海外中資股,預料去年盈利增速較2022年提升,但更多是因為基數效應,複合年均增速與2022年基本持平。以人民幣計價,估計整體去年盈利增長11%,較2022年全年提升5%。行業分化顯著,能源、工業、原材料疲弱;消費醫藥公用事業是亮點。 中金認為,海外中資股盈利增長內生動能仍然不足,基準情形下,2024年盈利或增長4.5%,與2023年較2019年的複合年均增速基本持平,延續溫和增長態勢。綜合來看,更多政策支持依然必要,而財政發力是扭轉當前經濟復甦偏弱和市場低迷局勢的關鍵。 中金整理未來業績有可能超出或低於預期的個股名單(詳見另文),建議投資者在年報期間密切關注有關股票,因為業績超出或低於預期可能會對股價產生影響。具體來看,博彩和奢侈品、輕工日化等下游消費行業中,部分公司復甦較好,美高梅中國(02282.HK)、阿里影業(01060.HK)、周生生(00116.HK)、亞朵(ATAT.US)等業績有望超過市場預期。 另一方面,銀河娛樂(00027.HK)、檸萌影視(09857.HK)、李寧(02331.HK)、海螺水泥(00914.HK)、百果園(02411.HK)等個股業績承壓,表現可能不及市場預期。
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