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警惕互联网泡沫重现!
uSMART盈立智投 05-26 19:18

投研机构Rosenberg Research总裁、华尔街顶级经济学家David Rosenberg周四警告称,投资者涌入人工智能(AI)股票可能会付出高昂的代价。长期看空市场的Rosenberg认为,围绕人工智能的热情分散了人们对衰退风险的关注。Rosenberg表示,“毫无疑问,我们存在价格泡沫。”

Rosenberg认为,人工智能股票的飙升与1990年代末的互联网繁荣有着惊人的相似之处——尤其是在过去6个月纳斯达克100指数的涨势方面。

“(这)看起来很奇怪,”Rosenberg表示。“上涨过头了。”

本周,英伟达(NVDA.US)积极的季度业绩将市场对人工智能领域的乐观情绪推向了新的高度。这家芯片制造商在周三美股盘后发布了强劲的季度业绩和指引。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋提到了对其人工智能芯片的旺盛需求。

财报公布后,英伟达股价上涨逾24%,过去六个月累计上涨133%。其他涉足人工智能领域的公司,如微软(MSFT.US)、谷歌(GOOG.US)和Palantir(PLTR.US)的股价也在飙升。

Rosenberg表示,这轮涨势是借来的。

“标普500指数的一些广泛指标为1999年以来最差的水平。仅仅七只超级大盘股就占据了今年指数涨幅的90%,”Rosenberg表示。“标普 500 指数中科技股的权重高达 27%,逼近2000年的水平,当时互联网泡沫达到顶峰,很快就以惊人的方式破灭。”

虽然大型科技股表现优于大盘,但Rosenberg认为银行、非必需消费品和运输类股的交易活动是不祥的预兆。

“它们对GDP的影响最大。它们比周期高点下跌了30%以上,”Rosenberg表示。“实际上,它们的行为模式与过去四次衰退时完全相同。”

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