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能否爲遊戲行業帶來確定性增量?73款遊戲獲批最新一批版號,網易、騰訊關聯公司上榜

來源:光大證券,原研報標題爲《【光大海外&互聯網】22M9遊戲版號審批跟蹤點評報告》

9月13日,國家新聞出版署公佈了新一批國產網絡遊戲審批信息,共73款遊戲過審,獲批版號中包括網易、心動網絡、中手遊、邊鋒等多家知名廠商的遊戲。值得注意的是,在今年4月遊戲版號重新發放後,網易首次獲批版號。另一遊戲大廠——騰訊並未直接獲得版號,而是多家騰訊參投公司拿到版號。

本輪涉及獲批遊戲包括騰訊遊戲追夢計劃、NExT Studios和TGideas(騰訊創意設計團隊)聯合推出的健康科普休閒塔防手遊《健康保衛戰》,網易旗下手遊《全明星街球派對》,騰訊持股的像素軟件科技旗下IP手遊《尋仙世界》,中手遊IP改編ARPG動作手遊《鎮魂街:天生爲王》,心動公司發行的RPG端遊《模擬江湖》等作品,此外,中青寶、邊鋒網絡、咪咕互動等廠商獲發版號。

點評:騰訊、網易獲發遊戲體量預計較小,監管面邊際向暖,看好後續產品線推進貢獻業績增量。騰訊《健康保衛戰》爲與人民日報、中國免疫學會聯合研發的健康益智科普遊戲,展現遊戲的正面社會價值。網易《全明星街球派對》前期並無成規模宣傳,預計業績貢獻較低。

展望後續質量更優、變現潛力更高的產品獲發版號,將對騰訊、網易業績預期造成較大正面影響。騰訊擁有《Valorant》《Apex》《堡壘之夜》多款熱門端遊IP,獲發版號後有望移植手機端並在國內發行,業績貢獻增量確定性強;網易自研端遊IP《逆水寒》《永劫無間》手遊化有望帶來遊戲業務收入增量,兩款遊戲均爲中國風,相對更容易獲發版號。截至9月13日21:00《永劫無間》手遊TapTap預約量超245.6萬次,《逆水寒》手遊TapTap預約量超59.1萬次。

時隔13個月,頭部公司騰訊、網易再次獲得遊戲版號,提振遊戲行業市場信心。21M8-22M3版號停發對中小公司影響較明顯,2022年前四次版號發放以小公司、輕量級遊戲爲主,騰訊、網易均未獲得版號,兩家公司的版號儲備較爲有限。

光大證券認爲,頭部公司遊戲研發技術底蘊深厚,再次獲得版號後預期將加大新遊戲研發投入,拓寬產品生產線,豐富遊戲品類,爲2023年及後續提供更多收入增量空間。同時,國內頭部遊戲廠商對於版號申請審批流程及規範要求更加熟悉,後續版號申請有望較爲順利,從而推進遊戲庫存釋放,貢獻業績增量。長期來看,騰訊、網易獲批版號有利於公司釋放產品線遊戲存量,帶動2023年中國遊戲市場總收入提升,提振遊戲行業市場信心。

22M9心動公司負責PC端發行的《模擬江湖》獲發版號。截至9月13日21:00《模擬江湖》 TapTap預約量超40.6萬次。版號發放常態化利好中小遊戲公司,TapTap內容吸引力有望進一步增強。此外,心動公司自主研發的全新ARPG手遊《火炬之光:無限》在9月3日上架steam商店頁面,《T3 Arena》官宣或於10月上線Google Play,關注兩款遊戲國內版號發放進程。

投資建議:該機構認爲,隨着22M9遊戲版號的下發,版號監管後續有望進入常態化階段,爲遊戲行業帶來確定性增量。同時,騰訊、網易22年首次獲批版號有利於頭部公司加速釋放遊戲存量,帶動業績增長。維持互聯網傳媒行業「買入」評級。預計22年後續每月維持70款左右遊戲版號下發,全年預計發放524個版號左右,騰訊、網易等頭部公司後續有望繼續獲發版號,推薦近期出海收入表現佳,堅持精品化研發路線、內容爲王的廠商,推薦騰訊控股、網易-S、三七互娛、心動公司,關注中手遊、中青寶。

風險分析:版號監管風險,新遊表現不及預期,買量成本風險,海外市場不及預期

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