《大行報告》大摩:集體拒還房貸直接影響看起來可控
摩根士丹利發表報告指,內地集體拒還房貸直接影響看起來可控,因並非所有在建項目都面臨暫停按揭還款,而今次拒還房貸主要是由長期停工引發,與負擔能力無關,因此一旦項目恢復施工,銀行仍有機會向購房者收取還款。
該行認爲,決策者及時傳遞政策信號對社會穩定很重要。如果出現非線性外溢風險,可能會進一步削弱買家信心,降低預售項目的交付能見度,並導致銷售復甦慢過預期。最終在不確定的市況下,或有更多的開發商面臨更大的流動資金壓力。
報告預計,受影響項目的潛在總樓面面積爲1.88億平方米,相關的抵押貸款爲8.08億人民幣,或佔今年3月抵押貸款總餘額的2.1%。
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